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  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    The seasonal weak months for gold is Jun and Aug. We are getting off the lows of Jun already. A small bounce next month, then another bop down in August with higher low. Just a guide though. he-he

    The seasonal lows for gold shares (HUI Index) are, however, July and October. These are average figures since the start of the gold bull market since 2001.

    People are shocked from what happened to their 401Ks, investment accounts, house values, etc. They are gun shy or totally out of the game. China's play across the board with the western hedge funds will dampen the power of manipulation. The western central banks also have less and less physical gold to sell to bring gold prices down. On silver, they have no reserves! So silver will explode much bigger than gold.

    Trade the technicals and continually use part of profits to accumulate physicals. We will methodically bring manipulation to its knees.

    "Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where
    you are not expected." - from The Art of War, Sun Tzu
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    Here's a repost of tactical wisdom from Sun Tzu's "Art of War". The Chinese leaders are obviously reading this book plus that of Adam Smith, while the American leadership are turning socialist. he-he

    Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put
    themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then
    waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

    To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our
    own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy
    is provided by the enemy himself.

    Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat,
    but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

    Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer
    without being able to do it.

    Security against defeat implies defensive tactics;
    ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.

    Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient
    strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.

    The general who is skilled in defense hides in the
    most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in
    attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven.
    Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves;
    on the other, a victory that is complete.

    To see victory only when it is within the ken
    of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.

    Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight
    and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!"

    To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength;
    to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight;
    to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.

    What the ancients called a clever fighter is
    one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.

    Hence his victories bring him neither reputation
    for wisdom nor credit for courage.

    He wins his battles by making no mistakes.
    Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty
    of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is
    already defeated.

    Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into
    a position which makes defeat impossible, and does
    not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.

    Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist
    only seeks battle after the victory has been won,
    whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights
    and afterwards looks for victory.

    The consummate leader cultivates the moral law,
    and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is
    in his power to control success.

    In respect of military method, we have,
    firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity;
    thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances;
    fifthly, Victory.

    Measurement owes its existence to Earth;
    Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to
    Estimation of quantity; Balancing of chances to Calculation;
    and Victory to Balancing of chances.

    A victorious army opposed to a routed one, is as
    a pound's weight placed in the scale against a single grain.

    The onrush of a conquering force is like the bursting
    of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep.
    that was an amazing pop last night.
    saw some analyst calling for cup and handle formation. im amazed sometimes by the techincals(coming from a fundamental background is my crutch). its not an absolute science but it sure does have a high chance of probability of it happening.
  • blackderman1303blackderman1303 Member PExer
    do you guys trade electricity too?
    how about trading the weather?

    have you guys heard of genetic trading?
    I think that's where the big money is now.
  • blackderman1303blackderman1303 Member PExer
    or how about investing on human life?
    Do you guys think it will be worth more in the future?

    I mean computers in the future can do almost everything, so i wonder what the value of human life will be if we start trading it in the stock market.
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    THe US markets... the once-upon-a-time bastion of free enterprise is now a joke with rampant manipulation and insider trading. Check this article from the Market Ticker...
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    Here's a snippet on an article from Elliott Wave International titled...

    Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

    If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

    Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, 'How do you stop the Hand?' Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

    Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology

    If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

    How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

    Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline

    When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

    Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations

    Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

    Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.

    Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience

    The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

    That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

    All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

    How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month ... I promise.

    I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: 'Aim small, miss small.' I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small."

    Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management

    The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

    Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

    Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

    To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.
  • babylandbabyland Member PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    Just got back to "civilization" from Caramoan, CamSur. It is definitely not Hawaii. he-he Nor does it compare to Boracay. It is pristine and should I say rather raw. No infrastructures. It is also very beautiful! But if you want a lounge chair and a pina colada, you better bring it because there is nowhere to buy it. ha-ha

    Hi knightrader,

    Welcome back. I also went to CamSur, but not in Caramoan. Just went wakeboarding at CWC instead.
    Did you try wakeboarding?

    I have mixed feelings regarding natural gas. I have read reports that US has an oversupply of natural gas. People have been saying for months that natural gas will dramatically increase but so far, it hasn't happened. Swing/Position trading indicators for it are neutral.

    I also noticed that stock price of gold and natural gas follows the same line. What are the REVERSE
    ETFs or other stocks (in other sectors) of gold/natural gas? What stocks are you looking at or is in your radar?
    interesting spike in oil today.
    nat gas crashing hard. U N G hopefully will hit my low ball offers
  • babylandbabyland Member PEx Veteran ⭐⭐

    I also have a low ball offer on U N G ETF! haha But I would also like to consider other natural gas stocks. Any recommendation on company stocks? What you think of DVN or EOG?
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    babyland wrote: »
    Hi knightrader,

    Welcome back. I also went to CamSur, but not in Caramoan. Just went wakeboarding at CWC instead.
    Did you try wakeboarding?

    I have mixed feelings regarding natural gas. I have read reports that US has an oversupply of natural gas. People have been saying for months that natural gas will dramatically increase but so far, it hasn't happened. Swing/Position trading indicators for it are neutral.

    I also noticed that stock price of gold and natural gas follows the same line. What are the REVERSE
    ETFs or other stocks (in other sectors) of gold/natural gas? What stocks are you looking at or is in your radar?

    CWC wasn't that interesting to me with the mechanical cables and man-made pools. I like the eal thing. he-he

    Yes, the USA have a surplus of natural gas for the moment. There is also massive storage capacity but natural gas here is produced at more than 2.5X the cost to produce it in other countries which are usually shipped to Europe. If there is surplus, it gets shipped to the USA to be stored. On the technicals, we wait for the knee jerk reaction on a higher high reversal. We don't have that yet. You do know that the markets can have little or no correlation to the fundamentals. ha-ha But China is getting in the hedge fund business across the western world. They maybe a counter to the prevailing control the manipulators have enjoyed for years.

    For ETFs, check the below website. You'll learn a lot from it including the various ETFs that is constantly being created...

    P.S. We have a tailwind on precious metals and mining stocks today. Riding through the wind. he-he The extreme volatility of oil today in intraday is awesome. ha-ha
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    This video requires no introdution. Hope it is understood not only intellectually but also emotionally to spur people into action. So sit back and enjoy the long weekend. :)
    major chart damage on u n g
    last major support at 12.7 broken down by the 12.4 premarket
    hopefully it closes higher than premarket
    next support at 10.98

    plan the trade trade the plan. im 1/4 in my intended positions worst case scenarion nat gas goes to 2. oh crap what are the odds of that.
  • babylandbabyland Member PEx Veteran ⭐⭐

    I have postponed going LONG on Natural Gas. Will wait for the higher high.

    Am planning to add to my gold positions during this month. Gold stock prices seasonally drop during the month of July. Will see.
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    I have been waiting for the cliche on gold, "sell in May and go away", to end year after year. he-he Yet it seems, we are again going the same seasonal pattern. I'm planning to buy some more physicals this week. My favorite bulllion dealer is in another state but I don't trust too many people with regards to buying physical gold and silver so I'll handle the pain of interstate driving. Darn.

    Only made one trade today... IVN. Not bad as it went against the trend. We also have tails formed in the dailys on many miners like NEM, KGC, SSRI... there's more but I already closed down my intraday charts and trading platform. he-he

    I love it when we have this down move "gift" in gold and silver. Good time to buy bullion bars, bullion coins and numismatics. We are now buying the smaller bars like 10-oz silver bars and the smaller gold bullion coins like french angels or roosters or British sovereigns or the 1/10 oz Austrian philharmonics (comes in a tube of 20 coins). When hyperinflation hits, you need the smaller size denominations to trade/barter or for living expenses.

    On the trading side, I can't get "clear" signals for intraday trades with the dailys still on lower low mode. Scalping is the only trade available. Patience and discipline. Most people can't keep themselves away from the buy/sell button even when there's no viable trading set-ups. Or worse, they can't keep themselves from hitting the stop loss. he-he

    My delta-neutral trades on U N G was taken out with a small loss. But like the terminator, I'll be back!!! ha-ha
    added another batch of U N G to my position
    still trading my position plan all the way to the 10's

    im concerned though.

    take a look at this candle that it printed on the 6th boss. your thoughts?


    @baby land. i do apologize but as far as commodities goes i am strictly an etf trader my scope of area is not as good at covering mining/drilling business sorry i wasn't of help
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    Silentmax, we have lower lows in U N G for straight 10 bars in the monthly chart. We had a first green bar last May w/ topping tail. This was followed by a red bar w/lower high but higher low last month (June). I jumped the gun with delta-neutral trade for a sideways bias view. The stop is below the low of last month. That is taken out. Now we wait for another set-up.

    I do not buy the lower lows. Trade long if and only if there is a confirmed reversal. We had one last May but wasn't confirmed with a higher high in the monthlys. It is best to buy after a series of red bars ONLY if, it is already going in the desired direction.

    Natural gas will be a great play when we do get the confirmed bounce like many of the market bounces we have seen with tremendous percentage gains in the reversal. This is a climactic buy when we get the trigger. One similar pattern is that of TCK. :)
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
  • knightraderknightrader Member PExer
    Sell in May and go away! Creepy isn't it? he-he The mining stocks are all racing down to the 200MA daily. NEM already did. Time to buy? Traditionally, we bottom in July. But we wait for the charts to tell us. Analysts, stockbrokers and investment banking firms may lie but the charts don't lie! So we wait for the higher high reversal... patiently. As Sun Tzu would say... the opportunity to defeat the enemy is provided by the enemy itself. Charts are like a battlefield. They are now attacking getting close to that first support line of 200MA. We wait to strike... feels like Braveheart. ha-ha

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