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2nd Pick Curse

awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
ok so kasagsagan ng pagkakadismaya ng mga tao sa number two pick ng 2015 draft class ng nba kay d angelo russell, napaisip ako at tinignan ko lahat ng past number two picks at halos lahat naging bust or nagkaron ng freak injury.. i played the role of an analytics guy and computed advanced stats for this phenomenon at nadiskubre ko ang groundbreaking stat na 21/35 times from 1980 to 2015 nangyari ang phenomenon na ito which means a number two pick will have a very high chance of 60% to be a bust!! pinaka nitable dito when sam bowie was picked second instead of the goat jordan!!! then malamang sunod na dito si d angelo russell magiging pinakabust na 2nd overall pick!!

come to think of it guys ito ang ilan sa napakadaming 2nd overall pick na nabiktima..

mkg - freak neck injury

beasley - bust

jabari parker - acl

derick williams - bust

evan turner - bust

marvin williams - bust

emeka okafor - bust

hasheem thabeet - bust

millicic - bust

keith van horn - bust

camby - bust

stromile swift - bust

sam bowie - super bust

shawn bradley - bust

d angelo russell - mega bust!

ayan lang ilan marami pa di ko na binanggit , and finally for a number 2 pick to be good it only has 4/35 chance or 11% very low! durant, aldrige, payton at kidd lang naging matinong 2nd pick..

this should be a reminder to teams that they should trade their 2nd round pick in the draft night while it still has value!
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Comments

  • neth_rowneth_row PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    Edited the thread to indicate what you really meant (this isn't advanced analytics like you claimed it to be. It's looking at Wikipedia and shouting eureka over something that isn't groundbreaking).
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    neth_row wrote: »
    Edited the thread to indicate what you really meant (this isn't advanced analytics like you claimed it to be. It's looking at Wikipedia and shouting eureka over something that isn't groundbreaking).

    sayang sir..mas maganda sana una kong title sa thread plain na plain lang kasi yang pinalit mo nilagyan ko ng creativity yung sa original title eh yung "I have discovered an advanced stat in the NBa (analytics perspective) since bigla ko na lang itong naisip umilaw bumbilya sa ulo ko at naisip ko ang phenomenon na ito.. btw kelan pala ako magkaka lakers at celtic pins?
  • pristonpikerpristonpiker PEx Influencer ⭐⭐⭐
    A lot of people believe that sam bowie was a bust, including myself. Actually, he's not. He was a great player before the injuries. He had a decent run with the nets. Posted double doubles.

    He can hit those midrange jumpers and has a good touch from the outside for a bigman in the 80s.

    He became member of nba all rookie team in '85

    He can block shots. Sadly, his injury will forever label and curse him as a bust. Same with Greg Oden.

    Ang mga bust eh yung mga relatively healthy pero wala olats pa rin gaya nila kwame brown, hasheem thabeet, anthony bennet.
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    A lot of people believe that sam bowie was a bust, including myself. Actually, he's not. He was a great player before the injuries. He had a decent run with the nets. Posted double doubles.

    He has a midrange game and has a touch from the outside.

    He can block shots. Sadly, his injury will forever label and curse him as a bust. Same with Greg Oden.

    Ang mga bust eh yung mga relatively healthy pero wala olats pa rin gaya nila kwame brown, hasheem thabeet, anthony bennet.

    then we will categorize him under the injured casualties like mkg jabari etc.. but still passing over jordan for picking bowie is a very poor decision..just like this year when lakers passed over okafor for picking d angelo d league russell..
  • BubblesButtercupBubblesButtercup I Love Holly Golightly!!! PEx Expert 🎖️
    evan turner is not a bust.
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    evan turner is not a bust.

    pano mo nasabi? ako i'll still consider him a bust. he did not perform as well as what the scouts expected from him, he was even hyped as the next brandon roy but look what happened, he became one of the most inefficient players in this era. he has no real offensive weapon arsenal, bara bara lang siya palagi kung umiskor walang skillset can't create his own shot and he is a below average defender. nagmukha lang siyang magaling sa philly dahil inflated ang stats niya sa isang bad team na katulad ng philly

    masipag siya kung sa masipag at may hustle pero kung talento at skills paguusapan walang wala talaga siya and he is only a role player type of guy at his best. he is good enough for a backup sf/sg but not as a starter
  • cuchcuch PEx Influencer ⭐⭐⭐
    kvh (16ppg/6 reb), camby( 4 time nba block shot leader/ 2007 dpoy) and okafor(2005 roy/ 12ppg,10 rebs) bust? these guys were borderline all-stars and important contributors for the teams they played for before injuries/age ended their careers.
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    cuch wrote: »
    kvh (16ppg/6 reb), camby( 4 time nba block shot leader/ 2007 dpoy) and okafor(2005 roy/ 12ppg,10 rebs) bust? these guys were borderline all-stars and important contributors for the teams they played for before injuries/age ended their careers.

    you're right i won't tag them as a mega bust because they had average performance but they will be tagged as poor decisions, why? camby was picked before 3 FREAKIN HALL OF FAMERS in steve nash, kobe bryant and ray allen then keith van horn was picked before t mac, billups, scott pollard and croshere and finally emeka okafor was picked before al jefferson, iguodala and jameer nelson
  • cuchcuch PEx Influencer ⭐⭐⭐
    well being able to predict the future is not part of a gm's job description, a lot of factors are involved in picking a player to draft- team needs, player upside etc.... coming out of college, camby had better stats than nash, kobe was an unproven high school prospect, the raps needed a big man therefore camby over ray-ray/kobe, they already have a pg- damon stoudamire.

    kvh again, coming out of college- college playe of the year, lead the utes in the final 4, - t-mac still a few years before stardom, same with billups( remember he bounced around a couple of teams before blossoming in detroit) were are pollard and croshere now?

    my home boy 'meka( houston native) just coming off leading uconn to an ncaa championship, good rebounder/defender.- a.j. still raw coming out of hs, a.i.- so-so stat playing for 'zona in college, jameer - small pg from small college( st., joe's) bobcats already had ray felton at pg.
  • BubblesButtercupBubblesButtercup I Love Holly Golightly!!! PEx Expert 🎖️
    pano mo nasabi? ako i'll still consider him a bust. he did not perform as well as what the scouts expected from him, he was even hyped as the next brandon roy but look what happened, he became one of the most inefficient players in this era. he has no real offensive weapon arsenal, bara bara lang siya palagi kung umiskor walang skillset can't create his own shot and he is a below average defender. nagmukha lang siyang magaling sa philly dahil inflated ang stats niya sa isang bad team na katulad ng philly

    masipag siya kung sa masipag at may hustle pero kung talento at skills paguusapan walang wala talaga siya and he is only a role player type of guy at his best. he is good enough for a backup sf/sg but not as a starter

    he was a borderline allstar like 3 seasons ago, he's clutch, the draft class was not that deep. only produced 3 allstars so far and 1 champion(dexter pittman)
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    he was a borderline allstar like 3 seasons ago, he's clutch, the draft class was not that deep. only produced 3 allstars so far and 1 champion(dexter pittman)

    nope he was not a borderline all star inflated ang stats niya dahil siya lang ang option sa philly at puro garbage time na nilaro dahil tanking sila meaning tinambakan na sila ng kalaban agad kaya wala ng gana maglaro kabila pinapabayaan nalang sila dahil malaki naman na lamang

    and look at that percentages sobrang inefficient. pero oo inaamin ko na clutch siya at masipag yun lang ang positibo sa laro niya at wala nang iba.. he was picked before cousins and what hurts the most is he was picked before paul george na sg/sf din naman ang laro

    anyone who believes that he is a borderline all star is misguided, he is role player or maybe sixth man at his best but will never be a solid starter caliber
  • Nice, I think the topic creator may have a point.....which is pointless:lol:
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    Truxton wrote: »
    Nice, I think the topic creator may have a point.....which is pointless:lol:

    i see.. so you're one of the old school traditional guys like charles barkley who trashes the analytics guys like me. i respect your opinion but i just want to say that without us, the analytics guys, there will be no benchmark for the players and staff and you will make bad decisions from time to time.. parang sa mga opisina lang yan kung walang operations research at statistical management panigurado babagsak ang kompanya dahil mali mali ang decision..

    kami ang nakakadiskubre ng mga advanced stats gaya nitong pinost ko para makatulong sa mga staff and players upang makita kung ano ang gagawin para magimprove at kung ano ang iiwasan. analytics = the foundation of good basketball dynasties.
  • PandaemonaeonPandaemonaeon Moderator PEx Moderator
    Most of the guys you listed barely even qualify as a bust. Camby, Van Horn and Okafor were all pretty good. Heck, you can make an argument that Shawn Bradley and Evan Turner had productive careers themselves.
  • TS is BUST! MEGA BUST! :lol::lol::lol:
  • rationalrational PEx Influencer ⭐⭐⭐
    i see.. so you're one of the old school traditional guys like charles barkley who trashes the analytics guys like me. i respect your opinion but i just want to say that without us, the analytics guys, there will be no benchmark for the players and staff and you will make bad decisions from time to time.. parang sa mga opisina lang yan kung walang operations research at statistical management panigurado babagsak ang kompanya dahil mali mali ang decision..

    kami ang nakakadiskubre ng mga advanced stats gaya nitong pinost ko para makatulong sa mga staff and players upang makita kung ano ang gagawin para magimprove at kung ano ang iiwasan. analytics = the foundation of good basketball dynasties.

    How can you call yourself an analytics guy if you can't even do it properly?

    To be able to prove that "curse" exists, you have to compare how many busts there were at other picks. And you have to clearly define "bust".
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    Most of the guys you listed barely even qualify as a bust. Camby, Van Horn and Okafor were all pretty good. Heck, you can make an argument that Shawn Bradley and Evan Turner had productive careers themselves.

    yup i admit i was wrong for tagging camby, van horn and okafor as busts but drafting them can be considered a "bust decision" because you picked those three ahead of kobe, ray allen, steve nash, tmac, croshere, scott pollard and billups.. and besides being a second overall pick has very high standards, i think the top two picks are always expected to become superstars and what happened to van horn, camby and okafor? yes they produced and filled their role but they are semi disappointing in the sense that they did not become as good as the expected outcomes of 2nd overall pick like DURANT, ALDRIGE, PAYTON AND JASON KIDD.
    taj_2306 wrote: »
    TS is BUST! MEGA BUST! :lol::lol::lol:

    hehe tignan na lang natin kung makabawi yang cleveland mo baka naman mag BUST nanaman yan sa finals ahh at maging 2-5 na record ni lebron..hehehe lebron = FINALS BUST
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    cuch wrote: »
    well being able to predict the future is not part of a gm's job description, a lot of factors are involved in picking a player to draft- team needs, player upside etc.... coming out of college, camby had better stats than nash, kobe was an unproven high school prospect, the raps needed a big man therefore camby over ray-ray/kobe, they already have a pg- damon stoudamire.

    kvh again, coming out of college- college playe of the year, lead the utes in the final 4, - t-mac still a few years before stardom, same with billups( remember he bounced around a couple of teams before blossoming in detroit) were are pollard and croshere now?

    my home boy 'meka( houston native) just coming off leading uconn to an ncaa championship, good rebounder/defender.- a.j. still raw coming out of hs, a.i.- so-so stat playing for 'zona in college, jameer - small pg from small college( st., joe's) bobcats already had ray felton at pg.

    yeah yan ang problema noong hindi pa uso ang analytics walang tumutulong sa decision making sa mga staff pagdating sa draft, ngayon kasi at least meron ng mga probability models at complex computation analysis para makita kung sino ba ang mga mataas chance na maging superstar at mataas chance na maging bust sa NBA. kahit naman kasi malakas sa college di ibig sabihin kaya na maghalimaw sa NBA at ang mga analytics nakikita kung sino yang mga mukhang di kagalingan sa college pero magiging halimaw sa NBA, imagine noon kung uso na analytics daming nasayang na high picks para sa mga bust nasayang lang, at etong ginawa kong advanced stat is a first step to unlock new doors in the world of drafting analytics

    and btw guys in this draft class based sa analytics si HEZONJA at MUDIAY at OKAFOR ang may pinakamataas chance na maging superstar..hehe paniguardo ako tama ang computations namin magiging malakas ang 2 na yan tignan niyo
  • awtsupaytsuawtsupaytsu PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    rational wrote: »
    How can you call yourself an analytics guy if you can't even do it properly?

    To be able to prove that "curse" exists, you have to compare how many busts there were at other picks. And you have to clearly define "bust".

    sa study na ginawa ko eh inisolate ko ang number 2 picks at mutually exclusive siya sa number 3 picks pababa kaya ang titignan lang na data set ay ang mga number 1 at number 2 picks tapos titignan kung sino ang mga na passed up na prospects sa number 3 picks pababa.
  • rationalrational PEx Influencer ⭐⭐⭐
    sa study na ginawa ko eh inisolate ko ang number 2 picks at mutually exclusive siya sa number 3 picks pababa kaya ang titignan lang na data set ay ang mga number 1 at number 2 picks tapos titignan kung sino ang mga na passed up na prospects sa number 3 picks pababa.

    Show your data then. Are there more busts at number 2 than at number 3? Also, how did you define bust?
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