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Hollinger, his Power Rankings... and the Mavs.

With the Mavs on a 13 game winning streak (longest of the season), at first place in their division, at second place in the Western Conference, with a 4th best record in the league (45-21)... Hollinger places the Mavs at 13th spot in his Power Rankings.

In the 13 game winning streak, the Mavs were able to defeat teams like the Suns, Magic, Lakers and the Hawks. They've been playing well despite the injuries on some of their players. The last time they lost was against the Thunder and this was the first game after they made the trade got got them Butler, Haywood and Stevenson.


So, here's the top 15 teams from his "Power Rankings" as of today:

1. Orlando Magic
2. Utah Jazz
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Los Angeles Lakers
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Denver Nuggets
7. San Antonio Spurs
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
9. Atlanta Hawks
10. Portland Trailblazers
11. Milwauee Bucks
12. Boston Celtics
13. Dallas Mavericks :eek:
14. Miami Heat
15. Charlotte Bobcats

I'm sorry, but this is just unacceptable.
How can he put the Mavs at 13th place?! He gives too much importance on the Average Winning Percentages of Opponents Over Last 25% of Games Played and disregards the Mavs' composure and team character for winning in close games. He calls the Mavs lucky for winning those games. Lucky?! What happened to his stats?

You can probably say that the Cavs, Lakers and Magic are still better than the Mavs... but the Suns, Spurs, Thunder, Hawks, Blazers, Bucks and Boston?! Come on!


How can you take this guy seriously?! :bop:



2009-2010 Hollinger Power Rankings
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Comments

  • neth_rowneth_row PEx Veteran ⭐⭐
    I don't get his methodology either. The Lakers are the odds-on favorite to repeat this year, and yet he still has them at 4th.

    And he has the Spurs at 7th - the same Spurs who are half a game ahead of Portland for 7th seed in the West.

    :glee:
  • Geez.

    Don't tell me you two haven't heard of BSPN? :lol:
  • Explaining Hollinger's Power Rankings
    EmailComments
    120

    By John Hollinger
    ESPN Insider
    Archive
    Editor's note: To see the Hollinger Power Rankings, click here.

    By now, you might have noticed our daily version of power rankings is back up on ESPN.com's NBA page.

    These rankings are based on a formula I devised, and they are updated every day, automatically.

    I created these rankings to give a quick assessment of all 30 teams so far in the season, since sometimes the standings can be misleading in this department.

    Here is some background to help you as you look through the rankings each day.

    Scoring margin
    One of my goals was to create a system that told us more about a team's quality than the standings do.

    So instead of winning percentage, these rankings use points scored and points allowed, which are better indicators of a team's quality than wins and losses.

    This might not sound right at first, but studies have shown scoring margin to be a better predictor of future success than a team's win-loss record. Thus, scoring margin is a more accurate sign of a team's quality.

    That explains why, for instance, three seasons ago the Spurs ranked ahead of the Mavericks even though they had won nine fewer games -- San Antonio's scoring margin was superior. That ultimately proved to be prophetic, as Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs while the Spurs won the championship.

    Strength of schedule
    Yes, this matters in the NBA, too. It is not as profound in the pro game as in the college game, because the 30 NBA teams are more evenly matched, but it still affects a team's results.

    This comes into play mainly in the early part of the season, when there can be wide disparities in the quality of competition, but even at the end of the season, there will be differences among teams -- particularly when one conference is far better than the other.

    Recent performance
    Another key variable in the formula is recent performance, which I included for two reasons.

    First, it stands to reason that more recent games are more valid indicators of how strong a team is currently.

    Second, I wanted these rankings to follow the model of Marc Stein's "human" power rankings, on the site each Monday, in which a team's recent play is a huge factor.

    To accomplish this, I weigh a team's full-season results by two-thirds and its most recent games by another one-third, so the overall ranking gives greater weight to recent games.

    You're probably wondering at this point what I mean by "recent." It varies depending on where we are in the season.

    For the first 40 games of the season, it means a team's past 10 games.

    From that point forward, however, it means the most recent 25 percent of a team's schedule. The net result is that, after the first 40 games, a team's most recent 25 percent of its schedule will account for 40 percent of its ranking.

    Home and road
    The final variable here is home and road games.

    In each game, a team's scoring margin is adjusted by the 3.5-point advantage we (and by "we," I mean the Vegas books, of course) expect the home team to have in a game between otherwise equal opponents.

    This can have a large effect at certain points in the season for some teams, as their home and road numbers can get way out of line. This is particularly true for the two "circus/rodeo" teams -- Chicago and San Antonio -- who take at least one extended road trip every season because their arenas are being used for special events and thus end up with a big home-road disparity.

    Caveats
    Since this is an entirely automated ranking, you'll notice certain "human" factors missing.

    It doesn't know which players are about to come back from injury or which teams have been playing without their best players for the past 10 games.

    Along the same lines, it doesn't take into account injuries, trades, controversial calls or any other variables -- just the scores, please.

    Nonetheless, it can be very useful because it allows us to see what the landscape looks like when we remove our usual filters.

    We hope you enjoy our daily power rankings.

    HOLLINGER'S FORMULA
    RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

    SOS = Season win/loss percentage of team's opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

    SOSL10 = Season win/loss percentage of team's last 10 opponents, expressed as a decimal (e.g., .500)

    MARG = Team's average scoring margin

    MARGL10 = Team's average scoring margin over the last 10 games

    HOME = Team's home games

    HOMEL10 = Team's home games over the last 10 games

    ROAD = Team's road games

    ROADL10 = Team's road games over the last 10 games

    GAMES = Team's total games
  • Got this from another forum:

    This is the fourth season of the Power Rankings, and most of the time the world order is fairly straightforward. Generally, the teams at the top (and bottom) are there for a reason, and the rankings more or less follow the general consensus of NBA observers.

    Every once in a while, however, the rankings deviate from the norm, and the e-mails pour in. For some reason, the Dallas Mavericks have been more involved in these controversies than most teams. In 2007, the Power Rankings had hardly debuted when I was excoriated for ranking a 58-win San Antonio team ahead of the 67-win Mavs. Columnists in both cities called me an idiot, marking possibly the first time the two Texas rivals agreed on something. Alas, the Spurs won the NBA title that season, and the episode was forgotten quickly.

    This time around, we have another difference of opinion regarding the Mavs. Dallas has won 13 straight games, owns the fourth-best record in basketball, is tied for the NBA lead with 22 road wins and has most folks considering it a strong title contender in the wake of a deadline-week trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood.

    The Power Rankings? Not so much. They place the Mavs at a modest 13th in a 30-team league.

    Why the disconnect? Well, I can pinpoint a couple of reasons. For starters, I've been writing for a while about how compressed the top of the league is this season relative to the middle and the bottom, and the Mavs provide an object lesson.

    With a rating of 102.4, the Mavs are about as close to top-ranked Orlando (107.3) as they are to No. 18 Chicago (97.7). Only 3.4 points separate No. 4 Los Angeles from No. 14 Miami, implying that a meeting between nearly any of those 11 teams would hinge on home-court advantage. As if to prove that point, the Lakers and Heat went to overtime in Miami last week, and the Heat prevailed.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that first and foremost, the Power Rankings are a predictive tool. The idea is to compare the rating to the left of each team's name, add three points to the team with home-court advantage, then make a prediction. Wednesday night, for instance, the Power Rankings had the Mavs as 13.6-point favorites at home against New Jersey; Dallas actually won by nine.

    It may surprise people to learn that in building a predictive tool, scoring margin and schedule strength are more important than wins and losses. (Or maybe it's not a surprise, since I've railed about this for so long.) Dallas doesn't grade terribly well in these categories -- the Mavs' scoring margin is the league's 12th-best, for instance, against opposition that's a perfectly average .500 when not playing the Mavs.

    The Power Rankings weigh a team's most recent 25 percent of games most heavily, which you'd think would favor the Mavs because they've won 13 straight. Actually, it doesn't. Included in the mix are a 36-point beatdown in Denver and an awful home loss to Minnesota, and no victories by more than 13 points. As a result, their scoring margin in their past 17 games, which have been against the league's fourth-weakest schedule (.458), is an unimpressive plus-3.1.

    If you're curious, the Minnesota defeat will go off Dallas' recent-games r?sum? after Saturday's game against the Knicks, while the Denver fiasco won't disappear until March 21. (In a scheduling quirk, Dallas only plays three games in the next 10 days.) Barring any other meltdowns, the Mavs' power ranking should improve by about a point, which would move them to 10th -- still well short of their perceived place in the universe.

    Let's get back to the predictive tool thing for a minute.

    Believe it or not, the Power Rankings have predicted recent Mavericks games quite well. It installed Dallas as a favorite in all but three of the 13 games in the streak (at Atlanta, at Charlotte and at Orlando), with the Lakers game seen as a toss-up. In other words, 10 of Dallas' 13 wins didn't do much to change their standing in the world of the Power Rankings. Once you adjust for home-court advantage, Dallas' six previous games all were won by the higher-ranked team as well, meaning the Power Rankings have gone 16-3 with one push in the Mavs' 20 most recent games. Not too shabby.

    I also should point out that my predictive model is not the only one that is dismissive of Dallas. The predictor of USA Today's Jeff Sagarin has it ranked 12th.

    Nonetheless, most fans seem flabbergasted that I have Dallas just 13th. So let's take it team by team with the franchises ranked ahead of Dallas and ask two questions: 1. How are they ranked ahead of the Mavs? and 2. Would I pick the Mavs to beat them in a series? Walk through the exercise, and perhaps their positioning will become more understandable:






    1. Orlando Magic


    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Magic are only a half-game ahead of Dallas in win-loss record, but they are miles ahead in scoring margin both on the season (plus-6.4, second in the NBA) and in recent games (a league-leading plus-10.2), enabling the Magic to take the top spot in the Power Rankings.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Dallas' win in Orlando on Feb. 19 was the most impressive of the 13-game streak, but Orlando also shot 4-for-25 on 3s in that game -- an event unlikely to repeat itself in future meetings. The Magic are playing better than any other team in basketball right now, so the Mavs will have their hands full when the two clubs reconvene on April 1 in Dallas.










    2. Utah Jazz

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Jazz are 23-5 in their past 28 games and have the best scoring margin in the West in the past 25 percent of their schedule. For the season, the Jazz' scoring margin is nearly equal to the conference-leading Lakers', and they've played the league's most difficult schedule to date. (Opponents have a .520 winning percentage when not facing the Jazz.)

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. The Jazz have won two of three meetings between the clubs and on paper appear to be a much better team this season. The two sides won't face each other the rest of the regular season but could very well meet in the second round of the playoffs.









    3. Cleveland Cavaliers

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Cavaliers have the league's best scoring margin (plus-7.2) and, despite injuries to LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal, have managed to improve on that margin in recent play (plus-8.5), including a win over San Antonio on Tuesday without either player.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. The teams split their two meetings this season, but the Cavs sport the ultimate trump card in James. They also arguably improved themselves more than the Mavs at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Antawn Jamison, a deal that will have cost nothing after the return of Zydrunas Ilgauskas.









    4. L.A. Lakers

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Lakers sport the best scoring margin in the West at plus-6.0 and have played a very difficult schedule (.516, even though they're the only team that doesn't have to face the Lakers). Although they've scuffled in recent games, the Lakers' plus-3.3 margin in the past 25 percent of their schedule is still stronger than Dallas' plus-3.1, and it has come against much stronger opposition.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No, but I'd think about it. The two teams split their four regular-season meetings, and the Mavericks appear to match up pretty well against L.A.'s size, especially in the wake of the Haywood trade. Dallas also has defended Kobe Bryant very effectively in their four meetings. The problem is the Mavs can't score on L.A., either.









    5. Phoenix Suns

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    Thanks to a recent spurt after the insertion of Robin Lopez as the starting center, the Suns are 14-4 in their past 18 games with a plus-7.2 scoring margin -- against strong opposition, too. For the full season, the Suns' scoring margin isn't much better than the Mavs', however.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Dallas won two of the three regular-season meetings but also was home for two of them, and a single point decided the first one (a 102-101 Mavs win on Nov. 8). Basically, it's a wash on that front. I'd take Phoenix based on its vastly improved D in the wake of the Lopez move. These two teams could meet as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the West, in which case Dallas' home-court advantage would be another factor to consider. But I'd still take Phoenix.









    6. Denver Nuggets

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Nuggets haven't awed, but they've been consistently solid. They have a plus-5.1 scoring margin for the season, and although that's down to plus-4.0 in recent games, they've played the league's second-toughest schedule during that stretch. All those marks are superior to Dallas'.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    You saw the playoffs last year, right? Although the Mavs have somewhat addressed the glaring athletic deficit that faced them in their second-round smackdown by the Nuggies in 2009, this probably would be the worst matchup for Dallas. I should note that the 127-91 beating by Denver in February came on a terrible back-to-back for the Mavs, so that's probably an unfair indicator. The two teams will meet March 29 in Dallas, and if the Mavs win, they'll take the season series 2-1 thanks in part to having two of the games at home. But home or away, I'd take Denver in a series.









    7. San Antonio Spurs

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    Because the Spurs are great at beating the teams they're supposed to. San Antonio has struggled mightily against the big boys, but when Sacramento or the Knicks come to town, they take of business. As a result, they have a solid scoring margin (plus-4.4) despite a strong schedule overall (.506). Subjectively, though, I think the Power Rankings have overrated San Antonio for a while thanks to some early-season blowouts.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    Yes, especially if it started today. Tony Parker is the one problem matchup for Dallas, and he's out for the next six weeks. Even with Parker, I'd be inclined to take Dallas because the Spurs don't match up well defensively against Dirk Nowitzki, and the Mavs beat San Antonio in five games last year. Dallas also has won two of three meetings this season, making it seven of nine going back to last March.









    8. Oklahoma City Thunder

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Thunder's overall scoring margin (plus-3.5) doesn't beat the Mavs' by much, but they've picked it up lately -- OKC has outscored opponents by 5.8 points in the most recent quarter of its schedule. The Thunder also benefit from a relatively strong season schedule, so they have slight advantages on Dallas in the four main categories that the Power Rankings consider (home-road differential being the fifth, but that's rarely a factor this late in the season).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Oklahoma City was the last team to beat Dallas, 99-86 on Feb. 16; the Mavs won the first two meetings, but one was by a single point on Jan. 15. Since that game, the Thunder are 18-6, and youngsters Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are still improving. The Thunder also have a lot of length to throw at Nowitzki defensively and are a tough cover for Dallas' wings with Durant. My theory will be tested on April 3, when the Mavs and Thunder meet again in Dallas.









    9. Atlanta Hawks

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Hawks are a point ahead of Dallas in the Power Rankings based almost entirely on their superior scoring margin during the course of the season. Of late, the Hawks haven't played particularly well, but their scoring margin in recent games still isn't any worse than the Mavs'. Of note is that the Hawks came the closest to beating Dallas in the recent streak, leading by 14 in the fourth quarter before succumbing in overtime, thanks in part to the infamous Jason Kidd versus Mike Woodson encounter.

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    Honestly, I'd probably flip a coin. The Hawks outrate Dallas at the moment but also have benefited from being unusually, ridiculously healthy. Presuming the Mavs are at somewhere near full health, too, that advantage for the Hawks would go away in a series. Head-to-head, it's about as even between these teams as you could get: They've split six meetings during the past three years. This season, Atlanta won the first meeting in Dallas, and the Mavs won the second one in overtime. In a seven-game series, I'd go with whichever side had home-court advantage.









    10. Portland Trail Blazers

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Blazers are only a half-point ahead of the Mavs in the Power Rankings and have virtually identical marks across the board. The lone difference is that Portland's recent games have come against relatively strong opposition (.508), while the Mavs' have come against some of the league's weakest (.458).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Not even with home-court advantage, which could prove interesting because they may face each other as the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds in the West. Portland beat the Mavs twice in Dallas already, once without Brandon Roy and twice with Juwan Howard manning the middle. The Blazers arguably also made more impactful deadline additions than the Mavs by trading for Marcus Camby and bringing Nicolas Batum back from injury. The state of Roy's hamstring is a lingering worry, but that would be the only reason to shift my choice to Dallas. The two sides will meet in Portland on March 25 and again on April 9.









    11. Milwaukee Bucks

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    Of all the e-mails I get, the most common is, "How you can have MILWAUKEE ahead of the Mavs?!?!?!" This is unfair to the Bucks. Unbeknownst to most Mavs fans or the larger world in general, the Bucks may be the hottest team in the league right now. Since acquiring John Salmons, they've won nine of 10, with the lone defeat coming in overtime in Atlanta (immediately after Dallas went to overtime in Atlanta -- that was a heck of a basketball weekend in the Peach State).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Dallas won both meetings versus Milwaukee but by the smallest of margins (one in overtime, the other by a single point). Because both contests happened before the Bucks' recent rejuvenation, I'd lean toward Milwaukee in a neutral-site series. The Bucks are unquestionably the East's most dangerous low seed heading into the playoffs.









    12. Boston Celtics

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    The Celtics land one-tenth of a point ahead of Dallas based almost entirely on their body of work the first two months of the season, when Boston was 23-5 and competing for the top spot in the Power Rankings. Since that point, it's 17-18 with a barely positive scoring margin and in the most recent 25 percent of their schedule, its margin is a scant plus-0.3 despite a schedule nearly as soft as the Mavericks' (.472).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    Yes. Emphatically so. We'll get a test of that view on March 20 when the Celtics visit Big D, but the C's aren't looking real strong right now. Boston's veterans are running on fumes, and there's not enough help on the bench to drag it past the finish line, as Wednesday night's home blowout loss to Memphis further showed. It's possible the Celts won't make it out of the first round.


    This guy is so full of himself. And his beloved formulaic power rankings. He chose the bucks over the mavs? Bulldung.
  • dallas' last few wins have been against MIN (2x), NJ, CHI, SAC, CHA...

    plus the winning margins have not been comfortable.

    it's all in his formula.


    LAL's last 10 games include 5 losses and 5 wins against TOR, IND, DEN, PHI, MEM.

    Of the 5 teams they won against, only the game against DEN is noteworthy. TOR is only 1 game above .500 and MEM is only 3 games above .500. IND and PHI are sub .500 teams.

    There is a logic to this madness folks.

    Take the time to read...
  • dallas' last few wins have been against MIN (2x), NJ, CHI, SAC, CHA...

    plus the winning margins have not been comfortable.

    it's all in his formula.
    I think it's about time he gives credit to the Mavs for winning in close games. Good teams perform better during crunchtime, others panic and lose their composure. The Mavs is a veteran ball club (injury plagued & aging too). They don't need to go out and demolish their opponents and win by huge margins. They just play to win as many games as they can. The Mavs have been playing well even with a hobbled line-up. Let's admit it... This team now knows how to win games. Plain and simple.


    I'm guessing that the Mavs winning streak will have to come to a hault soon... but that does not mean that Hollinger's logic and math is correct. I'm just using the law of averages.
  • dallas' last few wins have been against MIN (2x), NJ, CHI, SAC, CHA...

    plus the winning margins have not been comfortable.

    it's all in his formula.


    LAL's last 10 games include 5 losses and 5 wins against TOR, IND, DEN, PHI, MEM.

    Of the 5 teams they won against, only the game against DEN is noteworthy. TOR is only 1 game above .500 and MEM is only 3 games above .500. IND and PHI are sub .500 teams.

    There is a logic to this madness folks.

    Take the time to read...

    the problem with his logic is that he bases everything on MOV and stats. he doesn't take into consideration who's injured, if a game is on a back-to-back, who just got traded, etc. if thats's the case, then just dont watch basketball and just have fun taking a look at box scores of each game.
  • SizzlingSisigSizzlingSisig PEx Rookie ⭐
    eh kaya nga meron sya caveat/warning eh. Tska sinabi naman nya na halos puro statistics/numbers lang basis nung rankings walang human factor etc etc. So why so serious?! lol
  • :bop:^ i like the fact that he bases his rankings to something we can all measure not just heart, passion, "clutchness" or whatever. but sometimes, he just contradicts himself... sort of. take this instance:

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    Of all the e-mails I get, the most common is, "How you can have MILWAUKEE ahead of the Mavs?!?!?!" This is unfair to the Bucks. Unbeknownst to most Mavs fans or the larger world in general, the Bucks may be the hottest team in the league right now. Since acquiring John Salmons, they've won nine of 10, with the lone defeat coming in overtime in Atlanta (immediately after Dallas went to overtime in Atlanta -- that was a heck of a basketball weekend in the Peach State).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Dallas won both meetings versus Milwaukee but by the smallest of margins (one in overtime, the other by a single point). Because both contests happened before the Bucks' recent rejuvenation, I'd lean toward Milwaukee in a neutral-site series. The Bucks are unquestionably the East's most dangerous low seed heading into the playoffs.



    so let me get this straight, the mavs has more wins after the trade, has a higher win loss record than the bucks, got better key aquisitions in butler and haywood, has a better MOV, is on a 13 game win streak AND has beaten the bucks twice already and he still picks Milwaukee to win a 7 game series between them? c'mon.

    :D
  • You doom yourself to a lifetime of insanity once you spend time reading (and reflecting) about BSPN stuff :lol:
  • Rocker09Rocker09 Next Gen. Tennis Star
    The formula gives too much importance in stats....Majority of the NBA fans will easily have a top 4 of cleveland, the lakers, the magic, and the mavs...
  • Jess24Jess24 PEx Expert 🎖️
    Well, just take it for what it's worth. Personally, I really dont bother to look at Hollinger's rankings, not that player efficiency ratio crap. If I want to see who's hot and who's not, I'd go check the real NBA standings and the NBA players/teams stats record itself.
  • Jess24 wrote: »
    Well, just take it for what it's worth. Personally, I really dont bother to look at Hollinger's rankings, not that player efficiency ratio crap. If I want to see who's hot and who's not, I'd go check the real NBA standings and the NBA players/teams stats record itself.

    Quoted For Truth :D
  • :bop:^ i like the fact that he bases his rankings to something we can all measure not just heart, passion, "clutchness" or whatever. but sometimes, he just contradicts himself... sort of. take this instance:

    How are they ranked ahead of Dallas?
    Of all the e-mails I get, the most common is, "How you can have MILWAUKEE ahead of the Mavs?!?!?!" This is unfair to the Bucks. Unbeknownst to most Mavs fans or the larger world in general, the Bucks may be the hottest team in the league right now. Since acquiring John Salmons, they've won nine of 10, with the lone defeat coming in overtime in Atlanta (immediately after Dallas went to overtime in Atlanta -- that was a heck of a basketball weekend in the Peach State).

    Would I take Dallas to beat them in a series?
    No. Dallas won both meetings versus Milwaukee but by the smallest of margins (one in overtime, the other by a single point). Because both contests happened before the Bucks' recent rejuvenation, I'd lean toward Milwaukee in a neutral-site series. The Bucks are unquestionably the East's most dangerous low seed heading into the playoffs.



    so let me get this straight, the mavs has more wins after the trade, has a higher win loss record than the bucks, got better key aquisitions in butler and haywood, has a better MOV, is on a 13 game win streak AND has beaten the bucks twice already and he still picks Milwaukee to win a 7 game series between them? c'mon.

    :D


    Milwaukee in its last 10 games has beaten Boston by 2 (not really taken seriously as an elite team nowadays but is still a formidable squad), Cleveland by 7 (without LBJ so...), Washington 2x by 28 and 13, Lost to Atlanta by 4, Won against Miami by 23 (despite Wade there, the Heat are a middling team), Indiana by 2 (not impressive), New Orleans by 20, New York by 16.

    All in all, that has to be impressive. Most of their wins have been blow outs. Obviously, none against an elite team (the Cavs without LBJ are not an elite team); 2 wins (Boston and Cleveland) and a loss (Atlanta) against top tier teams, 2 wins (Miami and New Orleans) against middling teams, 3 blow outs (Wizards 2x and Knicks) and a close one (Pacers) against the dregs.

    The most important part of it is that they blew away middling teams, which makes them an above average team. Surely, that doesn't make the Bucks an elite team. Nevertheless, they do look like a serious playoff contender.




    The Mavs won by 9 against NY, 13 against the T-wolves, 6 against the Bulls, 8 against the Kings, 3 against the T-wolves (egad!), 5 against the enigma that is Charlotte, 8 against the Hornets, 8 against Atlanta, 5 against the Lakers, 9 against the Pacers.

    None of the wins are convincing. Only the Lakers and the Hawks are top-quality teams.

    There you go...
  • add phoenix & orlando to that list
  • Milwaukee in its last 10 games has beaten Boston by 2 (not really taken seriously as an elite team nowadays but is still a formidable squad), Cleveland by 7 (without LBJ so...), Washington 2x by 28 and 13, Lost to Atlanta by 4, Won against Miami by 23 (despite Wade there, the Heat are a middling team), Indiana by 2 (not impressive), New Orleans by 20, New York by 16.

    All in all, that has to be impressive. Most of their wins have been blow outs. Obviously, none against an elite team (the Cavs without LBJ are not an elite team); 2 wins (Boston and Cleveland) and a loss (Atlanta) against top tier teams, 2 wins (Miami and New Orleans) against middling teams, 3 blow outs (Wizards 2x and Knicks) and a close one (Pacers) against the dregs.

    The most important part of it is that they blew away middling teams, which makes them an above average team. Surely, that doesn't make the Bucks an elite team. Nevertheless, they do look like a serious playoff contender.




    The Mavs won by 9 against NY, 13 against the T-wolves, 6 against the Bulls, 8 against the Kings, 3 against the T-wolves (egad!), 5 against the enigma that is Charlotte, 8 against the Hornets, 8 against Atlanta, 5 against the Lakers, 9 against the Pacers.

    None of the wins are convincing. Only the Lakers and the Hawks are top-quality teams.

    There you go...

    Beating Boston and the LBJ-less Cavs plus losing to ATL is more impressive than beating LAL and ATL (both without Damp and Butler)? wow....

    Why just list down the last 10 games?Dallas has also beaten Phoenix by 10, Orlando by 10 and Miami by 6..

    Please remember that they did this streak without key players in some games.. Damp missed 12 games,Terry in the last four, Caron against LAL and ATL and Haywood also missed two games.

    Impressive enough?
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    :rotflmao::rotflmao::rotflmao:
  • beedjhey wrote: »
    Beating Boston and the LBJ-less Cavs plus losing to ATL is more impressive than beating LAL and ATL (both without Damp and Butler)? wow....

    Why just list down the last 10 games?Dallas has also beaten Phoenix by 10, Orlando by 10 and Miami by 6..

    Please remember that they did this streak without key players in some games.. Damp missed 12 games,Terry in the last four, Caron against LAL and ATL and Haywood also missed two games.

    Impressive enough?

    it's all about hollinger's formula (that's the title of this thread). in his formula ---if you have bothered to read it--- the greater emphasis is on the recent matches, the last 10 to be exact, precisely because the power rankings are CURRENT and not based on team performance 1-2 months ago.

    also, the "impressive" part there is the quality of the wins. A winning margin of five points and below is usually seen as close games that could-have-gone-either-way.

    Victories with point spreads of about 10-20 are considered "comfortable" wins, although if you are closer to 20 than to 10, it usually counts as a blow out.

    Please re-read the margin of victory again to understand my points.
  • hollinger's formula is useless.
  • i need to add because some people may have reading-and-comprehension problems.

    dallas beat LA by 5 (which is usually not a convincing victory)
    the win against the hawks (8 points) is almost comfortably but not quite.
    but win against the T-wolves by just 3, the Knicks by just 9. they also had to rally to squeak past the Nets ---the Nets!--- in a game where Dirk Nowitzki played poorly.

    so yeah, dallas is a good team but the bucks are a better team at this point (AT THIS POINT)
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