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GREED IS GOOD! : Currencies

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  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    RP peso slips at close on oil dollar demand, rupiah

    Manila, July 13 -- The Philippine peso (PHP) purged early gains and slid at the close of Thursday's trade against the U.S. dollar in sizable volume as oil companies picked up dollars to service requirements and regional sentiment remained soft led by the Indonesian rupiah, traders said.

    The dollar/peso closed at 44.705 against Wednesday's 44.665 close.

    The peso rose to an intra-day peak of 44.430 in morning deals but surrendered those gains quickly when it slipped to a day-low of 44.752 in the afternoon session. Volume traded at the Philippine Dealing System stood at U.S. $145.3 million from $162.4 million Wednesday.

    "Oil companies with dollar requirements emerged and the rupiah was weaker," said a foreign bank dealer.

    Lingering political uncertainties continued to pound the rupiah which was bid at 9,430 to the greenback against 9,420 late Wednesday.

    But a local major bank dealer thinks the dollar/peso pair is merely consolidating after experiencing wild swings in recent sessions.

    "I think right now, the peso is just being swayed by the behavior of the regionals. There's nothing to panic about unlike the past sessions," he said.

    The peso began recovering against the greenback Wednesday after falling to a 30-month intra-day low of 45.150 Tuesday. Banks unwound long dollars until Thursday morning but turned cautious when regional sentiment turned shaky anew.

    Traders said a statement by central bank Governor Rafael Buenaventura earlier Thursday that he expects the peso to continue its recuperation until next week barely boosted the local unit which followed the pace of other regional currencies.

    The pair is seen to be encased in a tighter trading range of 44.600-44.800 on Friday, barring any sharp movements of its counterparts in the region, dealers said. -- Bridge News


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.545

    Yen 108.35

    HK Dollar 7.7962

    Indonesia Rupiah 9,445

    Thailand Baht 39.985

    SG Dollar 1.7415

    1 TW Dollar 30.887

    Korea Won 1,112

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7997

    Euro 1.07

    UK Pound 0.665

    As of 2:21 AM GMT

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Pardo: No need for central bank to raise overnight rates next week

    MANILA (AFX-ASIA) - Finance Secretary Jose Pardo said there is no need for the central bank to raise its overnight rates next week as the government is optimistic the peso will recover.

    "There is no need to increase overnight rates. We are reviewing the exchange rate and we are confident there should be an improvement," Pardo, a member of the central bank's policy-making Monetary Board, told reporters.

    At 10:05 am, the peso stood at a weighted average of 44.608 to the dollar against yesterday's close of 44.705.

    The central bank has maintained a tiered scheme for its overnight borrowing rate for the second straight week, effectively bringing down the rate to 8.5 pct from 10.0 pct. It pegged its overnight lending rate at 12.25 pct.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Pardo: Govt to review forecast for peso to average 42.0/usd in 2000

    MANILA (AFX-ASIA) - The government will review its forecast for the peso to average 42 against the dollar this year after the peso's recent weakness, Finance Secretary Jose Pardo said.

    "On the forex, we have to revisit our forecast of 42 to one dollar. This is the projection used for our fiscal programme," Pardo said.

    He said that every time the unit weakens one peso against the dollar, debt service rises by 7 bln pesos, while every percentage point rise in the 91-day Treasury bill average rate raises debt service by 9 bln pesos.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Good morning PExers!

    How was everyone's weekend? Mine was great!
    Good luck in your trades :)

    GREED IS GOOD! :D:D:D
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    RP central bank sees peso improving to below 44 vs US dollar


    Manila -- Philippine central bank Governor Rafael Buenaventura said Friday he expects the Philippine peso (PHP) to strengthen below the 44 level against the U.S. dollar on the back of the country's strong economic fundamentals, reiterating that the peso's recent slump was "overdone."

    "It (peso) should improve below 44," said Buenaventura. Asked when he sees the pair easing to that level, he said: "It's hard to say but definitely (it will go) below 44."

    "The fundamentals today versus the fundamentals of 1997 are vastly different," he said referring to the Asian regional currency crisis three years ago that prompted the local central bank to allow the peso to devaluate.

    The peso rose to a morning peak of 44.500 against the U.S. dollar Friday amid lack of corporate dollar demand which inspired dollar sellers, after closing at 44.705 Thursday and falling to a 30-month intra-day low of 45.150 Tuesday.

    Buenaventura said he believes the peso's recent plunge was more of a "temporary hiccup" which is linked to domestic political uncertainties. The peso's recovery materialized despite the central bank's decision not to touch its key overnight rates to attract investors in peso assets.

    Buenaventura said earlier Friday the overnight rates will be kept at current levels on Monday. The central bank has kept its three-tiered overnight borrowing rate steady for three weeks now, paying 10% for the initial PHP5 billion (U.S. $112.2 million) placed overnight, 8.5% for the next PHP5 billion and 7% for those in excess of PHP10 billion. Its overnight lending rate has been pegged at 12.25% for eight weeks now.


    Central bank key rates
    Philippine Finance Secretary Jose Pardo said Friday he does not see any need for the central bank to adjust its key overnight rates on belief the peso will sustain its recovery against the U.S. dollar amid expectations of dollar inflows.

    Asked whether there's a need to adjust overnight rates, Pardo, who is a member of the central bank's policy-making Monetary Board, said: "No. As I said earlier, we believe the peso will recover soon."

    "We're optimistic that with inflows, we see a (peso) recovery to happen," he added.

    The central bank’s overnight lending rate has been pegged at 12.25% for eight weeks now. Pardo said the overnight rate direction next week won't even be in the agenda of the weekly Monetary Board meeting later Friday. He said he expects bulk of the dollar inflows to come from seasonal remittances of overseas Filipino workers.

    Executive Secretary Ronaldo Zamora is confident the local unit can strengthen to the 41.50-42 levels very soon citing the country's strong economic fundamentals.

    Pardo said the government's original estimate is for the peso to average 41 to the greenback this year but says this will have to be reviewed.

    He said the every one peso depreciation in the dollar/peso average rate translates to about PHP7 billion more for the country's debt servicing requirements while every one percentage point rise in the benchmark 91-day Treasury bill average rate raises the government's debt service by PHP9 billion pesos.

    The Finance chief said he is confident that T-bill rates will not rise at the auction Monday citing the government's strong cash position. "I'm confident that it will move sideways (T-bill rates). I think the market knows that we have a deep pocket," he said.

    The government accepted only partially bids for 91-day T-bills at Monday's auction and rejected all tenders for the 182-day and 364-day papers to prevent a sharp rise in domestic interest rates. -- Bridge News
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.525

    Yen 108.08

    HK Dollar 7.7961

    Indonesia Rupiah 9,505

    Thailand Baht 40.125

    SG Dollar 1.7458

    1 TW Dollar 30.877

    Korea Won 1,112.5

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7998

    Euro 1.0661

    UK Pound 0.6671

    As of 2:30 AM GMT


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer

    PHILIPPINES STUMBLES... AGAIN

    The Republic of the Philippines was forced to cut back its first offering of yen securities since 1996 on July 13 by 30 percent to Y35 billion ($325.52 million), as well as shelving a planned Y10 billion seven-year issue. This was despite press speculation that the entire sale would be cancelled in the aftermath of the Hainan International Trust and Investment (Hitic) missed interest payment.

    The five-year samurai bonds have a coupon of five percent and are being issued at a spread of 193 basis points over the five-year yen swap rate. Nikko Salomon Smith Barney and Daiwa Securities are managing the sale. The bonds are being offered between July 17 and 28 and will be formally issued on August 2.

    The Philippines’ Department of Finance said the sale “generated wide participation from institutional investors and retail accounts”. The Republic has registered to sell up to Y100 billion with the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo.

    “They have been incredibly unlucky,” says one senior portfolio manager at an asset management company in Hong Kong, “though some might be less charitable. What with the massive widening of the dollar issue, the cancellation of the euro and now this, all told they have had a bad run.”
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.595

    Yen 108.07

    HK Dollar 7.7967

    Indonesia Rupiah 9,470

    Thailand Baht 40.285

    SG Dollar 1.7469

    1 TW Dollar 30.933

    Korea Won 1,113

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7998

    Euro 1.0691

    UK Pound 0.6697

    As of 2:33 AM GMT

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Good Morning PExers!

    Happy Trading! Any hot tips?

    GREED IS GOOD! :D:D:D
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    RP peso flirts with 45; central bank talk caps loss
    Manila, July 28, 11:30a -- The Philippine peso reversed its firm path in the previous session and slipped in early trade against the U.S. dollar Friday in tandem with the Thai baht's weakening, traders said.

    But the dollar-buying momentum lost steam early on rumors of central bank intervention. The dollar/peso was bid at 44.945 against Thursday's 44.875 close.

    The dollar/peso opened strongly at 44.900 but soon hit an early ceiling at 44.980 on rumors that the central bank was indirectly selling dollars at the 44.970-44.980 levels to keep the pair off the critical 45 mark.

    "It's the usual story. We're just tracking the baht and nobody wants to go home short (on dollars) for the weekend," said a local trader. The dollar/baht was bid at 41.08 in early Asian activity from 40.97 late Thursday.

    Dollar/peso players usually watch the dollar/baht's pace for directions since the Philippines and Thailand are deemed comparable in terms of export markets and economic set-up.

    However, traders said the central bank is not likely to let the peso suffer as much as the baht since apart from talk of intervention, a foreign bank dealer said the central bank is closely monitoring banks' dollar purchases in early Friday deals.

    Central bank officials were not immediately available to comment but central bank Governor Rafael Buenaventura said Thursday it will be futile to intervene and prop up the local currency considering that the peso's fate is being dictated by the weak regional trend.

    However, presidential aide Ronaldo Zamora aired his concern on the peso's sharp fall Wednesday and hinted the central bank should intervene in the dollar/peso spot market.

    The peso swooped to a 30-month low of 45.070 on Wednesday which was largely blamed on a sliding baht.

    "I think the central bank will be intervening intermittently. If there will be legitimate corporate demand (for the dollar) at these levels, it may let go and try to intervene again later," said a third dealer.

    Traders estimate the central bank may have unloaded about half of the volume turnover which reached a sizable U.S. $69 million nearly two hours after trading began.

    Dealers said there was talk that the central bank support may limit the peso's intra-day losses at the 45 mark with initial resistance pegged at 44.850. -- Bridge News


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 45.035

    Yen 109.43

    HK Dollar 7.7978

    Indonesia Rupiah 9,000

    Thailand Baht 41.575

    SG Dollar 1.7330

    1 TW Dollar 31.050

    Korea Won 1,117.6

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7997

    Euro 1.0827

    UK Pound 0.6652

    As of 1:58 AM GMT


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Philippine peso recovers in line with firmer Thai baht

    Manila, Aug. 2 -- The Philippine peso slightly healed against the U.S. dollar Wednesday, piggybacking on the strength of the Thai baht and amid weak corporate demand for the greenback, dealers said. At 0800 GMT, the dollar/peso finished at a six-day low of 44.790 against Tuesday's 44.860 close.

    "The peso appreciated because the baht strengthened and there was not much demand for dollars. And I think in any market, there has to be a correction," said a trader from a Dutch bank. -- BridgeNews


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.800

    Yen 108.94

    HK Dollar 7.7985

    Indonesia Rupiah 8,793

    Thailand Baht 40.880

    SG Dollar 1.7273

    1 TW Dollar 31.088

    Korea Won 1,114.5

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7998

    Euro 1.0924

    UK Pound 0.6694

    As of 3:06 AM GMT

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Philippine peso tad down early as importers buy dollars

    Manila, Aug. 3 -- he Philippine peso dipped in early thin trade against the U.S. dollar Thursday as importers decided to start buying dollars to pay for their shipments despite a continuing recovery in the Thai baht, dealers said. The market also appears to favor holding long dollar position at the moment due to prevailing domestic uncertainties, they said. At 0241 GMT, the pair was bid at 44.795 against Wednesday's 44.790 close in local trading.

    The dollar/peso opened slightly weaker at its early low of 44.770 where it was stuck for almost 50 minutes after trading began with only U.S. $2 million changing hands as players waited for clearer signals on where the exchange rate is heading.

    But the pair edged higher as dollar demand set in, touching an early peak of 44.830 amid a modest turnover of $30.5 million at 0241 GMT.

    "The market is relatively quiet as it waited for a trend to emerge. But there's an upside for the dollar because of expected commercial demand from importers. And at these times, it's always better to be long in dollars," said a dealer from a major local bank.

    Traders said the peso will likely move in a tight range between 44.750-44.850 as the market remained cautious to buy up the dollar amid a strengthening baht.

    The dollar/baht was quoted at 40.880 in early Asian activity from 41.07 late Tuesday.

    A second dealer from a U.K. bank said the dollar's rise against the peso may be capped at 44.850 as players will likely start selling their greenbacks at this level to immediately pocket some profits.

    Dealers said the market continue to be bearish on the peso due to prevailing domestic uncertainties with the prolonged Muslim insurgency problem at the southern Mindanao region which could dampen economic growth. -- BridgeNews


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.665

    Yen 108.49

    HK Dollar 7.7968

    Indonesia Rupiah 8,600

    Thailand Baht 40.685

    SG Dollar 1.7236

    1 TW Dollar 31.064

    Korea Won 1,115

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7997

    Euro 1.1057

    UK Pound 0.6689

    As of 1:35 AM GMT

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    HSBC, Chase Manhattan see RP gov’t 2000 budget gap reaching PHP80B


    Manila -- The Philippine government is expected to incur a wider-than-targeted budget deficit of 80 billion pesos (U.S. $1.8 billion) in 2000, said Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC) as Chase Manhattan projects a higher deficit of more than PHP100 billion for the same period.

    The government is hoping to cap its budget deficit at PHP62.5 billion this year from PHP111.7 billion in 1999.

    The government's budget gap reached PHP47.694 billion in January-June, about 42% above the target for the period, due to revenue shortfalls and accelerated state spending for the conflict-torn southern Mindanao region.

    However, HSBC stressed that but a budget gap of this size should not be worrisome. “Note also that our own 80-billion-peso fiscal deficit forecast for 2000 is still an acceptable 2.5% of GDP (gross domestic product)," the U.K.-based bank said.

    "The bottom line is official management of the fiscal accounts, while likely to fall short of this year's official target, is still nevertheless an improvement from last year," it added.

    HSBC said the market will likely keep a close eye on the government's fiscal deficit "although we maintain our view that the issue is not as significant a problem as generally perceived."

    The government is expecting its budget gap to widen further to PHP85 billion in 2001 to accommodate more economic pump-priming.

    Meanwhile, Chase Manhattan expects deficit this year to amount to 3.2 percent of the gross domestic product compared to 3.7 percent last year and a target of 1.8 percent of GDP this year.

    The growth in GDP, said Chase, should be a modest 3.5 percent compared to the government’s target of 4 to 5 percent.

    The government aims to increase tax revenue by 18 to 19 percent from the current level of 16 percent of GDP.

    “We continue to believe the full year deficit target of P62.5 billion will not be met particularly in the light of the P47.7 billion deficit in the first half,” said the US investment bank in a newly-published country review.

    Chase added that tax evasion remains a major concern despite government’s increased efforts to improve revenue collection. Only 40 centavos of every peso in taxes is actually collected, it noted.

    The Department of Finance said that Chase Manhattan is among several banks who have offered to underwrite in full the government’s planned US$370 million borrowings from the foreign currency deposit units this year.

    The government has definitely ruled out any foreign bond float this year because of wide spreads, he said and noted that the other option for the year is to float peso-denominated bonds through the small-denominated treasury market.

    The spreads of US$1.3 billion in global bonds the government had issued in March has widened from 646 to 673 basis points over Libor.

    The government plans to start a road show to sell the PHP5 billion worth of Progress Bonds it would issue to retail investors. The bonds could be converted into shares into government assets to be sold later. – with BridgeNews HSBC, Chase Manhattan see RP gov’t 2000 budget gap reaching PHP80B

    Manila -- The Philippine government is expected to incur a wider-than-targeted budget deficit of 80 billion pesos (U.S. $1.8 billion) in 2000, said Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. (HSBC) as Chase Manhattan projects a higher deficit of more than PHP100 billion for the same period.

    The government is hoping to cap its budget deficit at PHP62.5 billion this year from PHP111.7 billion in 1999.

    The government's budget gap reached PHP47.694 billion in January-June, about 42% above the target for the period, due to revenue shortfalls and accelerated state spending for the conflict-torn southern Mindanao region.

    However, HSBC stressed that but a budget gap of this size should not be worrisome. “Note also that our own 80-billion-peso fiscal deficit forecast for 2000 is still an acceptable 2.5% of GDP (gross domestic product)," the U.K.-based bank said.

    "The bottom line is official management of the fiscal accounts, while likely to fall short of this year's official target, is still nevertheless an improvement from last year," it added.

    HSBC said the market will likely keep a close eye on the government's fiscal deficit "although we maintain our view that the issue is not as significant a problem as generally perceived."

    The government is expecting its budget gap to widen further to PHP85 billion in 2001 to accommodate more economic pump-priming.

    Meanwhile, Chase Manhattan expects deficit this year to amount to 3.2 percent of the gross domestic product compared to 3.7 percent last year and a target of 1.8 percent of GDP this year.

    The growth in GDP, said Chase, should be a modest 3.5 percent compared to the government’s target of 4 to 5 percent.

    The government aims to increase tax revenue by 18 to 19 percent from the current level of 16 percent of GDP.

    “We continue to believe the full year deficit target of P62.5 billion will not be met particularly in the light of the P47.7 billion deficit in the first half,” said the US investment bank in a newly-published country review.

    Chase added that tax evasion remains a major concern despite government’s increased efforts to improve revenue collection. Only 40 centavos of every peso in taxes is actually collected, it noted.

    The Department of Finance said that Chase Manhattan is among several banks who have offered to underwrite in full the government’s planned US$370 million borrowings from the foreign currency deposit units this year.

    The government has definitely ruled out any foreign bond float this year because of wide spreads, he said and noted that the other option for the year is to float peso-denominated bonds through the small-denominated treasury market.

    The spreads of US$1.3 billion in global bonds the government had issued in March has widened from 646 to 673 basis points over Libor.

    The government plans to start a road show to sell the PHP5 billion worth of Progress Bonds it would issue to retail investors. The bonds could be converted into shares into government assets to be sold later. – with BridgeNews
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Jardine Matheson–Chase Manhattan $550 million exchangeable

    UBS Warburg launched a $550 million Jardine Matheson-Chase Manhattan exchangeable senior bond today. According to a source close to the sale, the book for the deal is several times covered.

    The exchangeable represents 8,708,400 shares of Chase Manhattan. It has a seven-year maturity, was issued at par and redeems at par. It will pay a 4.75 percent semi-annual coupon. The exchange price is $63.16, representing a 22.64 percent premium to the stock close on August 3.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer


    Philippines to cut borrowing in 2001

    The Republic of the Philippines announced on August 4 that it would borrow less from the capital markets next year. The Development Budget Coordinating Committee said the government intends to borrow P177 billion, a fall of 25 percent from fiscal 2000.

    Of this total, P112.3 billion will be accessed from the domestic capital markets, with the remainder coming from overseas. The deficit was announced to be Ps85 billion, up from the P62.5 billion for 2000. The large deficit has had a destabilising effect on Philippine sovereign paper recently — 9.75 percent March 2010 is trading at 526 over 10-year Treasuries and 10.625 percent March 2025 is trading at 695.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    US DOLLAR RATES

    Ph Peso 44.675

    Yen 108.78

    HK Dollar 7.7988

    Indonesia Rupiah 8,685

    Thailand Baht 40.800

    SG Dollar 1.7230

    1 TW Dollar 31.078

    Korea Won 1,115.5

    1 Malaysian Ringgit 3.7998

    Euro 1.1008

    UK Pound 0.6647

    As of 1:51 AM GMT

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