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GREED IS GOOD! : Philippine Stock Market (Stock Traders Lounge)

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  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    MARKET UPDATE
    August 2, 2000 - Wednesday
    Philippine Composite Index: UP 2.44pts (0.178%) at 1412.77

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    Selective bargain-hunting enabled the Phisix to slightly recover. The peso's
    marginal gain (at Php44.73/USD in morning trade from Php44.86/USD) and regional
    market gains (Dow was up 0.81% and HSI up 1.69% by midday) partially eased
    selling pressures. The Phisix narrowly traded at its intraday range of
    -4.80pts/+3.19pts as selling momentum notably eased and triggered minor interest
    for investors as they continue to reassess the risk given the current attractive
    prices.

    Trade activity however dropped to Php413.38m from Php544.205m yesterday. Lower turnover on such a bearish trend partly excites investors as it may translate
    to the tailend of foreign selling. Investors are now keen to re-evaluate the
    investment market in search for possible recovery signals. The marginal gain of
    the Phisix is attributed to the recovery of the C-I and the property sector
    which gained 0.14% and 0.16%, respectively. The number of gainers significantly
    increased, narrowing its ratio against decliners to 32:36 with 51 unchanged
    stocks.

    Trade focus (most active stocks) were on TEL, BPI, EBC, BW, SMCB, MBT, and ALI
    which altogether accounted for 54.7% of total market turnover. TEL and BPI
    accounted for 13.5% and 9.1% of the market's net turnover. Gainers (9)
    outnumbered losers (8) for index-linked stocks. Index-linked heavyweights that
    gained were AC, SMPH, PNB, MBT, PCOR, FLI, and ION which partly reflects minor
    foreign buying. Decliners were ALI, ABS, JGS, MER and LTDI but trade activity
    (except for ALI) among the decliners were relatively low. Top percentage gainers among active index-linked stocks were DMC (+5.3%), PNB (+4.2%), FLI
    (+2.7%) and SMPH (+2.1%).

    Net foreign selling were observed on TEL, BPI, EBC, and ALI. Selective foreign
    buying emerged in AC and SMCB. Huge sell postings in SMPH and PNB the past
    days were not evident today.

    Domestic focus were on OM, OMW, BW, and ION.

    The Listing Committee of the PSE announced its approval to grant Omico
    Corporation its request to extend the life of Omico warrant from August 17, 2000
    to June 30, 2002 but subject to PSE Board and SEC's approval. OMW and OM gained
    50% and 23%, respectively.


    PRICE SCAN: ALI - low at 4.95 was a 2month low
    BPI - low at 60.0 is a new 22month low
    AHI - gap down at 0.90; retested record low at 0.90 set 7/27
    PNB - on a 3day high at 50.0 after posting a low at 41
    OM - on an 11day high; closed the price gap at 0.0080
    OMW - on a 19day high at 0.0042


    CORPORATE NEWS / MARKET SCAN

    PLDT (TEL). Two major developments in PLDT: a) consolidation of ebusiness
    investments and possible listing in Nasdaq and , b) the sale of Salim Group's
    stake in First Pacific. PLDT announced that it will create a new subsidiary
    that will undertake and integrate its internet/ebusiness ventures but noted that it is too premature to affirm its Nasdaq listing. On the other front, the
    controlling shareholder of PLDT - First Pacific Group is one of the firms
    identified for sale by the Indonesian Government. The Salim Group has to give
    up control of First Pacific and 107 other companies as it owed the Indonesian
    government USD5.93b in emergency loans to its financial flagship - PT Bank
    Central Asia. Potential bidder for the assets includes an investor group close
    to Salim Group's founding company and the Malaysian government. MARKET SCAN and
    PRICE ACTION. The well-admired convergence thrust of PLDT requires the creation
    of several subsidiaries that has strategic alliance and support to PLDT. This
    is well anticipated and is a prudent way to reorganize assets and investments as
    what other global telecom players has done. To cite, huge telecom firm players
    such as AT&T and C&W HKt Ltd now has 16 and 15 respective subsidiaries that are
    listed. On the long-run, PLDT will gain significant value from the market price
    premium of the listed ebusiness subsidiary. On the other hand, PLDT officials
    see no rationale to comment on the First Pacific sale by the Indonesian government. It seems too premature to judge the potential partnership
    realignment or worse - management changes, once First Pacific changes its
    controlling shareholders. The bearish price trend on PLDT is attributed to
    reduced profitability, increased leverage and heightened competition. Investor's
    are expected to move away from the profitability picture and refocus on the
    breakup value and market leadership of firms. PLDT is relatively cheap given a
    breakup value market estimate between P900-Php975 per share. PLDT's recent
    price weakness (low at Php660) may now prompt an upgrade in its rating to a BUY.
    Fundamental focus over the nearterm will be on Smart's profit turnaround and
    improved margins from its convergence package. Bearish trend is intact but
    reversal signals are progressing with momentum at oversold status. Risk to 600
    remain open as it is the next fibonacci price target after breaking critical
    support at 690 and setting a new 5yr low at 660.0. Minor upmove towards the
    price gaps at 690/735 is possible but the medium term bearish trend continues.
    A reassessment of the trend may warrant a reversal for a bullish posture if 815 is breached on the next rally.

    ATN Holdings (ATN). ATN informed the PSE and SEC of its ongoing negotiations
    to acquire control of several new economy firms namely: Transpacific Broadcast
    Group Inc. (TBGI), Unipage Inc, First Entertainment Network and Data Cast.
    Transpacific provides satellite uplink services from the Clark Special Economic
    Zone and has a valuable legislative franchise to operate telecom services
    nationwide. Unipage and First Entertainment are prime entertainment
    manufacturing / distribution for wireless application while Data Cast offers
    data transmission on an advanced broadcasting technology. Unipage, First
    Entertainment and Data Cast are strategic businesses aligned to take advantage
    of TBGI's telecom franchise. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. ATN's ebusiness
    ventures could be one of the market's best ebusiness theme and has the potential
    to be among the country's biggest! It's highly valued nationwide telecom
    franchise, its existing satellite uplink operations and its strategic location in CSEZ means: a) a "nationwide" ready market, b) profitable operations / clean
    balance sheet, and c) a prime partner of choice among regional
    ebusiness/telecom players. Given its franchise, it can easily compete with the
    big telecom players and subsequently establish several subsidiaries for the
    different ebusiness services where strategic partnerships will be forged. It
    seems to early to judge the success of ATN's business plan and to determine how
    value will be clearly transfered from the new firms and to ATN. TBGI as a
    franchise holder is required to be listed and it will take some time before the
    market will be informed if ATN will acquire TBGI on a prelisting or on post
    listing. The planned acquisition is definite since TBGI and ATN surprisingly
    have the same controlling owners which allows them the luxury of time to assess
    the financial impact and the market timing of the buy-in . ATN shares are
    relatively illiquid with no more than 12% as the effective free float. Given
    the stock's relative illiquidity, ATN continues to be rated a SPECULATIVE BUY.
    Excluding the relative illquidity, ATN warrants a STRONG BUY. Foreign telecom and ebusiness players are slowly gaining interest to be a partner in ATN's
    ebusiness and this may slowly attact stock accumulation. Momentum indicators
    are low but rising and a price-momentum divergence signal has been triggered.
    Immediate price support at 2.90/2.80 with immediate key resistance at 3.50. A
    trend breakout at 3.50 points to 4.25/5.20.


  • cianoycianoy Vermicompost Bin Supplier PExer
    For stock market analysis you can check out my site at http://geocities.com/cianoy or http://www.egroups.com/group/philippinestockmarket

    ;-)
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Negros Navigation H1 net loss 113.02 mln pesos

    MANILA (AFX-ASIA) - Metro Pacific Corp unit Negros Navigation Co Inc said it incurred a net loss of 113.02 mln pesos on revenues of 1.23 bln pesos in the six months to June.

    In a notice to the stock exchange, Negros Navigation said its operating cost and expenses reached 1.01 bln pesos, putting operating income at 215.77 mln.

    It said its loss per share stood at 0.07 peso.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    STOCKWATCH: C&P Homes higher on prospects for debt restructuring deal

    MANILA (AFX-ASIA) - C&P Homes Inc was higher on amid expectations it will soon strike a deal to restructure its debt, dealers said.

    Bargain-hunting was also a factor, they said, with the stock trading near all-time lows.

    At 10:34 am, C&P Homes was up 0.0250 pesos or 13.16 pct to 0.2150 on volume of 890,000 shares.

    The composite index gained 17.76 points or 1.26 pct to 1,403.53.

    C&P Homes chief executive officer Sulficio Tagud Jr said yesterday he hopes to arrive at a restructuring deal with creditors for debt of 7.8 bln pesos by September or October.

    Tagud said creditors are studying C&P Homes' debt restructuring proposal and plan to commission PriceWaterhouse Coopers to validate its financial projections.

    "There's a report that C&P Homes will be finalising its debt restructuring deal soon and that's positive for the company. It will mean that they can start concentrating on their operations and improving profitability," Dexter Lee, an analyst with Citisecurities Inc, said.

    Lee said C&P Homes may post a small net profit in the first half in the wake of recent lot sales and debt reductions.

    C&P Homes reported a net profit of 52 mln pesos in the first quarter on revenue of 1.04 bln pesos.

    KGI Securities vice president for sales Fitzgerald Aclan said that C&P Homes' rise may also be technical in nature. "It is trading near all-time lows so some people are betting on the stock. It's been trading at roughly 10-20 pct of its book value," Aclan added.

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    MARKET UPDATE
    August 3, 2000 - Thursday
    Philippine Composite Index: UP 23.29pts (1.65%) at 1436.06

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    Observed net buying from some big foreign brokers resulted to some
    followthrough buying on hopes that bulk of the corporate earnings
    disappointments has been factored into the market. The notably less aggressive
    selling pressure from yesterday was taken as a short-term cue of the market's
    potential rebound. As we have indicated yesterday, lower trade turnover on a
    bearish trend partly excites investors as it may translate to the tailend of
    foreign selling.

    IMF's will for the National Government to tighten its budget deficit and retain its fiscal program targets has yet to be absorbed by the market. Such pressure
    from the IMF may be near-term bearish to the equity market as it will rekindle a
    rise in key domestic rates given the need to source more funds domestically to
    finance its deficit.

    The peso was relatively firm as it improved from Php 44.79/USD yesterday to
    Php44.77/USD during the morning trade activity.

    Trade activity was relatively higher at Php533.69m from Php413.38m yesterday.
    DBS transacted a cross on MVC for 178.8m shares at Php0.54 to lead most active
    stocks and accounted for 18.1% of total market trade turnover. Excluding MVC,
    trade activity reflected a marginal increase of 5.7% at Php436.96m. Gainers
    outnumber losers 60:25 with 34 unchanged stocks. All sectors excluding the oil
    sector posted gains. The closure of the Wildebeest (Sulu Sea) exploration sent
    share prices of select oil participants lower.

    Trade focus (most active stocks excluding MVC) were ABSP, SMCB TEL, MERB, MBT,
    BPI, BW and AC. ABSP and SMCB accounted for 12.9% and 11.6% of the market's net
    turnover (ex-MVC). Among index-lined stocks, only SMC registered a decline
    while there were 26 gainers and 6 unchanged issues. Top percentage gainers
    among active index-linked stocks were CMP (+10.5%), DMC (+7.5%), MERB (+5.2%),
    SMPH (+5.2%) and MPC (+5.0%).

    Creditors of CMP Homes (CMP) approved the proposed restructuring program for
    its Php7.8b debt. Preliminary reports indicate that Php3b of the debt will be
    converted to equity while the Php4.8b balance will be restructured in 7 yrs at
    an interest rate of 4.25% to 5.5%. (CMP gained Php0.02 to Php0.21)

    Domestic speculation play were on CMP, MERB, SMPH, DMC, FLI, FDC and MPC.

    PSE announced the change in par value of Centro Escolar University (CEU) from
    Php100 to Php1.0

    Ionics Circuits Inc. changed its corporate name to Ionics Inc. but the trading
    symbol of ION will remain unchanged.

    Waterfront Phils. Inc. (WPI) issued a clarifying note to the PSE citing news
    reports of its ongoing talks with a foreign gaming and hotel investor-partner
    are merely preliminary and exploratory. WPI gained Php0.03 to Php0.53.

    PRICE SCAN: MPC - opened with a gap up at 0.60/0.62
    MERB - opened with a gap up at 57.50/58.50
    MER - opened with a gap up at 57/57.50
    BW - opened with a gap up at 4.20/4.40
    TEL - opened with a gap up at 680/690
    FLI - opened with a gap up at 1.54/1.56
    CMP - opened with a gap up at 0.19/0.20
    WPI - opened with a gap up at 0.50/0.53


    CORPORATE NEWS / MARKET SCAN

    Metro Pacific Corporation (MPC) - up Php0.03 to Php0.63. MPC's parent firm -
    The First Pacific Group is further reconsolidating its shares in PLDT. MPRI
    will purchase 15.867m shares of PLDT from MPC and Metro Asia Link Holdings Inc.
    at Php900/ share for a cumulative transaction amount of Php14.28b. MARKET SCAN
    and PRICE ACTION. MPC will therefore generate Php8.734b from the transaction. MPC's renewed cash build-up from the sale of PLDT shares and its divestment
    from its non-property businesses is deemed positive for its property development
    projects. MPC recently submitted the highest bid for Lot B (8.54has) in Ft.
    Bonifacio which is intended for hotel, condo, museum, and commercial center
    development. MPC's bid was significantly aggressive at Php4.2b and a Php1.076b
    cash up front relative to SMIC's bid of Php2.88b and Php520.65m cash up front.
    MPC's growing cash horde and the relative price firmness of Ft. Bonifacio lots
    will partly increase MPC's book value and EV. MPC is definitely cheap relative
    to its BkVal and EV but the property slump and the high-end nature of MPC's
    development projects does not favor well for investors as other non-property
    sectors are likewise trading at cheaper values. MPC continues to be rated a
    LONG TERM BUY. MPC's recent price trend reflects a bounce from its recent low
    at 0.58. Recent two price gaps points to a nearterm bullish trend with an
    immediate test of price resistance at 0.69/0.71. Trend breakout of 0.73 is
    likely given the momentum buildup and as long as 0.58 holds over the near-term. The early wedge pattern break in its price pattern now increases the chance for
    a progressive buildup of the bullish 3rd wave.

    Globe Telecoms (GLO) - unchanged at Php15.0. Two developments on Globe: 1) the
    compensation of damages for prepaid subscribers, and 2) rumors of higher than
    expected 2Qearnings growth. Globe's 3rd system upgrade for the Nokia system
    resulted to technical problems which dismayed many prepaid subscribers. NTC has
    ordered Globe to review the incident and to compensate irate prepaid
    subscribers. Globe is waiting for the Nokia team who is investigating the
    systems failure and will likely compensate subscribers on prepaid card
    discounts. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. Growing revenue base and
    profitability backed by its increasing market share certainly lifted GLO as a
    market favorite (rated a BUY). The 3rd systems upgrade failure should translate
    to minor costs for Globe. Although corporate insiders were indicating
    extraordinary expenses/cost provision of Php270m for the year, market watchers do not think it is due not only for the discounts but on other investments.
    Globe reported a remarkable 52% rise in profits in 1Q2000 at Php335m. Market
    expects 1H2000 profits to hover around Php720-775m but rumors point to
    Php850-890m. This could further intensify market interest towards GLO but full
    year profits will be unlikely be rerated higher given the warning of
    extraordinary losses that will be booked this year. GLO's weekly and near-term
    price pattern is bearish. Risk is viewed in its price gap at 14.25/14.50 with
    key support at 13.50. Immediate resistance is at 15.50 with breakout at 16.25.
    Potential rally seems unlikely as consolidation levels show no momentum dip.
    Near-term trading tact should be a sell on rally towards 16 and to reassess on a
    downmove past 14.50.

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Ayala Corp defers share issue

    MANILA (AFX-ASIA) - Ayala Corp has decided to defer a planned issue of common shares due to unfavourable market conditions, company managing director Renato Marzan said in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Ayala requested the withdrawal of a registration statement filed by the company in May 1999, covering the issue of 75 mln "X series" common shares which the company planned to issue after its shareholders approved an amendment to its articles of incorporation.

    The offer, with the shares carrying a par value of 10 pesos each or 10 times the par value of issued common shares, was approved by shareholders early in 1999.

    Marzan said the company had decided to defer the planned issue until market conditions improve.

    Ayala Corp closed up 0.10 pesos at 6.60.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    MARKET UPDATE
    August 4, 2000 - Friday
    Philippine Composite Index: UP 15.12pts (1.05%) at 1451.18

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    The release of the country's July CPI at 4.2% fell within market expectation.
    Investors find inflation relatively benign to fuel a change in the country's
    fiscal policy or a move towards higher interest rates.
    Favorable CPI data, the impasse of 2Q corporate earnings disappointments and
    the notably less aggressive foreign-sell order flows fueled the technical bounce
    to extend further.

    The peso added to optimism as it gained further to Php 44.59/USD from
    yesterday's close at Php44.685/USD.

    Trade activity increased to Php521.82m from yesterday's ex-MVC cross total
    trade turnover of Php436.96m. Gainers continued to outnumber losers 49:25 with
    42 unchanged stocks. All sectors excluding finance and the mining sector posted
    gains.

    Trade focus (most active stocks) were heavily concentrated on MERB, TEL, BPI,
    and SMPH which altogether accounted for 55.6% of total market turnover. MERB and
    TEL accounted for 17% and 15.7% of the market turnover. Only 3 index-lined
    stocks decline, namely TEL, JGS and PNB. Top index gainers were ALI, SMP and
    MER. Best gainers among index-linked stocks were CMP (+19%), MPC (+6.4%), FLI
    (+6.25%), ALI(+5.9%) and SMPH (+5.9%).

    News of a potential foreign investor entry in CMP Homes (CMP) after the finalization of its restructuring program restored buying interest. CMP closed
    at Php0.25 to register a 31.6% gain since the restructuring deal was confirmed
    yesterday morning.

    PSE announced the suspension of trade due to non-compliance of reportorial
    requirements on RPC, WHI, MON and MED. Lifting of suspension warning was
    granted to URDI, SCC and MRC given its compliance to requirements with the PSE.

    PLDT and Benpres Corporation informed the PSE that the news article citing
    PLDT's bid to buy Bayantel is baseless. PLDT is not in discussion with the
    Lopez Group for the acquisition of Bayantel, while BPC reported that no
    inquiries have been received nor are any audit related to a probable sale is
    ongoing.


    PRICE SCAN: SMPH - on 3day upmove to set a 14day high at 5.40
    AC - intraday high at 6.70 is an 11day high
    CMP - set an 6week record high at 0.25
    FLI - 3day upmove to an intraday high at 1.72 is a 9day record high


    CORPORATE NEWS / MARKET SCAN

    SM Prime Holdings Inc. (SMPH). - up Php0.30 to Php5.40. Rumors point to a
    sustained profitability growth in 2Q2000. SMPH is likely to release its 1H2000
    financial performance sometime next week. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. SMPH
    registered a 10% profit growth in 1Q2000 on the back of a 14% increase in
    revenues. The economic slump and the bomb attack in one of its malls fueled
    expectations that 2Q2000 revenues and profitability will be reduced to near nil. As such, any signs of profit growth despite dismal in 2Q2000 is deemed
    positive as it confirms renewed strong consumer traffic in SMPH's malls. Adding
    further optimism to SMPH is a newsreport citing the possible entry to the
    country of US-based Toy's R Us which will more likely locate with SMPH given its
    market dominance. SMPH's is rated a BUY given its defensive posture given its
    growing leasehold space and its cash flow strength. Consensus profit growth
    estimates show an increase to 16% in 2001 on the back of the contribution of two
    new malls - SM Manila which was opened last April and SM Pampanga which will be
    operational by December 2000. SMPH's price trend is consolidating towards
    higher levels. Record drop at 4.05 early this year warrants a bottom and its
    recent high at 5.60 as the interim wave1. We suspect wave2 has bottomed-out at
    4.70 and current progress is a gradual upmove past resistance at 5.60 onwards to
    its medium-term objective at 6.25. Likely price pull-back towards immediate
    support at 5.10/4.95 is expected and should warrant accumulation. A price
    pattern for a reverse H/S is also in progress to support the rally potential.

    SPI Technologies. (SPI) - down Php0.10 at Php7.20. SPI Technologies issued a
    news release announcing a new outsourcing contract in Europe and another in US
    by its affiliate - Software Services. SPI also announced that it is also in the
    process of finalizing a contract for a business-to-business e-commerce company
    based in Netherlands for web based application development services. MARKET
    SCAN and PRICE ACTION. The undisclosed client was tagged as a Europe
    heavyweight and the initial contract is a major breakthrough that will open
    further stream of projects. The US contract was rumored to be from Amexco which
    SPI has yet to confirm. SPI is a rated BUY. New investments in the new economy
    including is call centers, and the gradual inflow of contracts reflects SPI's
    competence and strategic business model. SPI's rate of profit decline is due to
    end as its new investments slowly contribute to profitability by 20001. No
    extraordinary losses from foreign operations have been reported which puts on track its gradual return to register income growth. Price pattern remains
    bearish but momentum-price divergence signals attest to its recent low at 6.80
    as a likely bottom. So far, the consolidative pattern from 6.80 still
    exemplifies a reversal scenario which warrants a buy. Immediate resistance is
    at 7.60/7.90 where a likely convincing breakout points to a retest of 8.30/9.80
    over the medium-term.

    Metro Pacific Corporation (MPC) - up Php0.03 to Php0.63. MPC's parent firm -
    The First Pacific Group is further reconsolidating its shares in PLDT. MPRI
    will purchase 15.867m shares of PLDT from MPC and Metro Asia Link Holdings Inc.
    at Php900/ share for a cumulative transaction amount of Php14.28b. MARKET SCAN
    and PRICE ACTION. MPC will therefore generate Php8.734b from the transaction.
    MPC's renewed cash build-up from the sale of PLDT shares and its divestment from
    its non-property businesses is deemed positive for its property development
    projects. MPC recently submitted the highest bid for Lot B (8.54has) in Ft.
    Bonifacio which is intended for hotel, condo, museum, and commercial center
    development. MPC's bid was significantly aggressive at Php4.2b and a Php1.076b
    cash up front relative to SMIC's bid of Php2.88b and Php520.65m cash up front.
    MPC's growing cash horde and the relative price firmness of Ft. Bonifacio lots
    will partly increase MPC's book value and EV. MPC is definitely cheap relative
    to its BkVal and EV but the property slump and the high-end nature of MPC's development projects does not favor well for investors as other non-property
    sectors are likewise trading at cheaper values. MPC continues to be rated a
    LONG TERM BUY. MPC's recent price trend reflects a bounce from its recent low
    at 0.58. Recent two price gaps points to a nearterm bullish trend with an
    immediate test of price resistance at 0.69/0.71. Trend breakout of 0.73 is
    likely given the momentum buildup and as long as 0.58 holds over the near-term.
    The early wedge pattern break in its price pattern now increases the chance for
    a progressive buildup of the bullish 3rd wave.

    Globe Telecoms (GLO) - unchanged at Php15.0. Two developments on Globe: 1) the
    compensation of damages for prepaid subscribers, and 2) rumors of higher than
    expected 2Qearnings growth. Globe's 3rd system upgrade for the Nokia system
    resulted to technical problems which dismayed many prepaid subscribers. NTC has
    ordered Globe to review the incident and to compensate irate prepaid
    subscribers. Globe is waiting for the Nokia team who is investigating the systems failure and will likely compensate subscribers on prepaid card
    discounts. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. Growing revenue base and
    profitability backed by its increasing market share certainly lifted GLO as a
    market favorite (rated a BUY). The 3rd systems up
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    HSBC to buy bank

    HSBC is considering buying a bank in the Philippines to expand its retail banking operations in the country, says Philippine central bank governor, Rafael Buenaventura.

    He told Bloomberg that HSBC's unit in the Philippines would like to buy 100 percent of a Philippine bank. HSBC has been operating in the Philippines since 1875 and currently operates five branches, four in metropolitan Manila and one in the southern city of Cebu.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Bank merger announced

    Banco de Oro Universal Bank, owned by Philippine retail tycoon Henry Sy, will merge with Dao Heng Bank Philippines, a subsidiary of Dao Heng Bank, Hong Kong.

    The two banks announced that the merger would be executed through a share swap arrangement. Under this plan, Dao Heng Bank will get a minority stake in Banco de Oro and will be represented in the management of the merged bank with Banco de Oro being the surviving entity. Banco de Oro president, Nestor Tan, said Banco de Oro would benefit from Dao Heng's expertise in consumer banking. Dao Heng Bank managing director, Randolph Sullivan, said an alliance with Banco de Oro would strengthen Dao Heng's competitive position in the Philippines and provide the group with a wider access for its extensive range of financial products and services.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Taiwanese group to buy into Equitable

    Equitable PCI Bank president and chief executive officer told the Philippine Star that a Taiwanese group was one of several other parties that are interested in buying between six to 20 percent of the Philippine bank.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer

    Templeton to retain investment in PNB

    Templeton Asset Management of Hong Kong said it would retain its investment in Philippine National Bank (PNB). The Philippine Star newspaper reported that Templeton would not sell its stake in PNB. Templeton's 10.9 percent holding in PNB will be diluted if it does not participate in a forthcoming stock offering aimed at raising capital for the bank which is controlled by Lucio Tan, chairman of Philippine Airlines.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    Philippine builder moves closer to debt restructuring

    In a recurring theme this week, the largest Philippine builder of homes company C&P Homes saw its creditors accept terms of restructuring its P7.8 billion ($173 million) of debt. The company halted payments on P14 billion of debt in October.

    P6.3 billion of its total debt is owed to foreign creditors. The company is seeking to convert Ps3 billion of debt into equity and increase the repayment period to seven years.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer


    Philippines to cut borrowing in 2001

    The Republic of the Philippines announced on August 4 that it would borrow less from the capital markets next year. The Development Budget Coordinating Committee said the government intends to borrow P177 billion, a fall of 25 percent from fiscal 2000.

    Of this total, P112.3 billion will be accessed from the domestic capital markets, with the remainder coming from overseas. The deficit was announced to be Ps85 billion, up from the P62.5 billion for 2000. The large deficit has had a destabilising effect on Philippine sovereign paper recently — 9.75 percent March 2010 is trading at 526 over 10-year Treasuries and 10.625 percent March 2025 is trading at 695.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    MARKET UPDATE
    August 7, 2000 - Monday
    Philippine Composite Index: DOWN 1.08pts (-0.07%) at 1450.10

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    Trade activity dropped to a record low of Php306.239m, as investor's herd
    characteristic found no leaders to follow and hopes faded for a follow-through
    buying activity from last week's indicative market rally.

    News of government efforts to curtail the country's ballooning deficit to lower
    levels failed to stir interest as market watchers see the odds favoring higher
    than target budget deficit numbers. The peso slightly dropped to Php44.73/USD
    in today's morning trade activity from Friday's close at Php44.63/USD.

    Real trade activity was much lower since there was a Php30m cross transaction
    on PGMC at Php20/share. This effectively lower the trade turnover to
    Php276.239m, a 37% drop from Php436.96m last Friday. Profit-taking resulted to
    higher number of stock decliners at 46, gainers were 20 and 44 unchanged stocks.


    Trade focus (most active stocks) were heavily concentrated on SMCB, MERB, TEL,
    PGMC, and MBT which altogether accounted for 62.2% of total market turnover.
    SMCB and MERB accounted for 17.3% and 14.7% of the total market turnover. Only
    4 index-lined stocks managed to post gains, namely ABS, TEL, SMCB and AEV. Top
    index decliners were CMT (-9.4%), CMP (-8%), FDC (-4.6%), MPC(-4.5%) and DGTL
    (-4.4%).

    PSE announced the lifting of suspension of trade on MED.

    Waterfront Phils. Inc. (WPI) reported the following board resolution: 1) Mr.
    W. T. Gatchalian was re-elected as director to serve until the next annual
    meeting, 2) the next annual stockholders meeting will be on September 30, 2000
    and has set September 11,2000 as the record date for stockholders entitled to
    vote, and the 3) approval of its 25% investment in Wellex Industries, Inc.
    (WIN).

    PRICE SCAN: CMT - low at 0.29 is a 25-month record
    DGTL - gap down at 0.66-0.68


    CORPORATE NEWS / MARKET SCAN

    Benpres Corporation (BPC) - down Php0.05 at Php3.95. BPC telecom-affiliate
    Bayantel is currently negotiating with several international telecom firms for a
    possible partnership for its mobile phone operations. Cited by a newspaper as a
    prime target partner is Telenor International A.S. or Telenor - Norway's biggest
    phone company which offers telephone services adn as well as install/operates
    information technology systems. Telenor also has international
    ventures/partnerships in Ireland, Greece, Germany, Austria, Montenegro, Hungary,
    Russia, Ukraine, Bangladesh and recently in Malaysia. MARKET SCAN and PRICE
    ACTION. BPC's search for a strategic partner is well anticipated given its huge
    capex requirement estimated around US$700m for its mobile, toll road, power
    generation and water distribution business. BPC's debt problem and violation of
    leverage restrictions has prompted a downgrade in key ratings from most
    brokerages early this year. BPC has an outstanding debt of Php12.4b. This has
    been evident to its share price which dropped from a high of 9.10 (2/11)to a low at 3.55 (5/24). The sell-off has reduced effective foreign shareholdings at
    BPC to 20% from the allowable 40%. Focus now is on BPC's debt reduction program
    which is notably one of the prime concerns of BPC's management. A strategic
    partner in Bayantel will therefore allow the expansion without BPC incurring
    additional debt. Its rumored partner- Telenor is new to the Asian market but
    has been notably firm in its desire to establish presence. It has inked ties in
    Malaysia recently and is one of the rumored partners for TACS in Thailand.
    Telenor has taken a 30% stake in Digi.com Bhd in Malaysia for US$207m, an amount
    which BPC also requires for the mobile phone roll-out. We do not expect any
    upgrade in the market rating on BPC due to this development (BPC remains rated a
    LONG TERM BUY). Trading strategy however warrants an accumulation at current
    levels as reversal signals are building-up. Recent low at 3.85 (a break of key
    support at 3.90) suggests a bottoming out trend since 3.55 is still the
    recognized trend bottom. BPC's corrective pattern on a major impulse wave does
    not warrant a full correction (based on BPC's history) which at current level puts BPC on the buy zone. Immediate price resistance is 4.15/4.40.

    BW Resources (BW) - down Php0.10 to Php4.30. The Securities and Exchange
    Commission (SEC) is not likely to act on BW's filing for a change in corporate
    name and business until it satisfactorily submits its financial statements for
    FY1999 and the necessary settlement of fines. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION.
    Trade interest on BW never recovered despite its announcement of the change in
    business and its entry to the new economy. Overhang is the ongoing
    investigation of the DOJ whose preliminary comments is due to be released by
    mid-September. The programmed entry of its new investors worth Php5b being
    arranged by Penta Capital will be delayed if SEC delays its approval. BW's
    intermediate trend (6weeks) is bearish from 7.0 to its recent low at 3.90.
    Momentum signals are mixed and trend reversal signals are not yet formidable
    until a trend break of 4.90 is achieved. Bullish hopes are pinned on an end of
    the corrective wave2 at 3.80 and an intermediate 3wave is due to progress with 5.40/6.0 as the immediate target. However, if BW's price consolidates, there
    is a growing risk of a downward break of key price support at 3.80 since the
    bullish scenario warrants that the 3rdwave to be a strong rally.

    ABS-CBN (ABS) - ABS and ABSP was up Php3.0 at Php48.50. Foreign interest on
    ABS-CBN is gaining ground given its justifiable premium being a major content
    provider. ABS recently acquired a majority stake (51%) in PinoyAuctions.com
    which strongly sends a positive signal where ABS is pursuing active entry in
    on-line business and it wants a controlling stake. MARKET SCAN and PRICE
    ACTION. ABS is rated among the top buys for new economy play and its dominant
    stature warrants a premium. Such theme is expected to gradually take key focus
    anew after the 2Q2000 corporate earnings reporting season ends. The various
    potential for tie-ups is expected to keep ABS busy in building and acquiring
    other on-line firms. This is expected to enhance its revenue base more than what
    its traditional programming revenues provide.
    A technical price rebound is also due as its recent price drop from 57 to 44
    has attained key fibonacci retracement targets. Next immediate price resistance
    is at 50.50/52.0 while support is its recently filled price gap at 47.50/47.0.
    Risk towards 44.0 remains open but the medium and long-term trend objective
    towards 57 remains intact. Selling pressure is expected to increase towards
    50.0 which is its current 1-month average transaction price.

  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    MARKET UPDATE
    August 8, 2000 - Tuesday
    Philippine Composite Index: DOWN 11.36pts (-0.78%) at 1438.74

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    The alarming drop in trade activity yesterday further stressed the decline in
    overall investor interest. Hints of lower key domestic interest rates and the
    US market's overnight gain (Dow was up 0.92% and 2% for Nasdaq) failed to stir
    activity as investor reluctance intensified in absence of market incentives.
    Lower share prices and the steady decline in market turnover can critically
    damage foreign institutional investor interest at the Philippine market as
    effective liquidity decline beyond fund exposure standards.

    Trade activity relatively improved by 49.5% to Php457.741m from a record setting low of Php306.239m yesterday. However, excluding the transaction cross
    on SMCB worth Php169m and Php4.3m on CHIB, net turnover remains alarmingly low.

    Central Bank's memorandum for banks on the revised formula for the reserve
    requirements will expectedly free 1-3% of liquidity estimated around Php52b.
    CB wants the banks to increase its loan exposure while effectively reducing key
    interest rates.

    Mixed results of the T-bill auction failed to be a benchmark of recovery for
    the equities market. The 91day tenors inched lower at 8.924% from 8.925%; the
    182day low was unchanged at 10%, while the 364day tenor increased from 11.176%
    to 11.242%.

    Despite relative regional currency firmness, the peso slightly declined anew to
    Php44.96/USD in today's morning trade activity from yesterday's close at Php44.845/USD.

    Real trade activity was much lower since there was a Php30m cross transaction
    on PGMC at Php20/share. This effectively lower the trade turnover to
    Php276.239m, a 37% drop from Php436.96m last Friday. Profit-taking resulted to
    higher number of stock decliners at 46, gainers were 20 and 44 unchanged stocks.


    Trade focus (most active stocks) were again highly concentrated on SMCB, TEL,
    BPC and MBT which altogether accounted for 65.5% of total market turnover. SMCB
    and TEL accounted for 37.77% and 14.26% of the total market turnover. Again,
    only 4 index-lined stocks managed to post gains, namely TEL, EBC, LTDI, and
    AEV. Top index decliners were SMPH(-6.6%), CMP (-6.5%), BPC (6.3%), ICT(-3.85%)
    and MPC (-3.1%).

    Several business dailies highlighted the Belle Corporation's planned divestment
    of non-core assets which includes the possible sale of Philcom. Such news was
    not a surprise as this has long been announced under Belle's restructuring
    program. GSIS, SSS and SMIC both maintained one board seat representative. (BEL
    was unchanged at Php0.97)

    Ayala Corporation (AC) disclosed its investment in MeetChina.com, a provider of
    online door to door solution for buyers around the world to procure products
    from China. Funding will be used to develop on-line negotiation tools. Our
    initial scan show MeetChina.com has yet to operate and AC's investment is
    unlikely for immediate benefit. MeetChina.com is not listed but its programmed
    listing in HK or China will fuel windfall gains in the future. (AC closed
    unchanged at Php6.60)


    PRICE SCAN: ICT - posted an intraday record low Php0.99

    CORPORATE NEWS / MARKET SCAN

    Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI-FEB) - up Php0.5 at Php63.50. BPI
    furnished the PSE its 1H2000 financial performance with 1H2000 profits at
    Php1.747b. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. Most houses were already aware of
    BPI's 1H2000 financial results. Summary highlights are: a) 2Q2000 profits at
    Php887m is down 37% yoy, a huge decline from a mere 6% decline in 1Q2000, b)
    pro-forma merged basis with FEB reflects a 47% decline in 2Q2000 profits. BPI's
    disappointing 2Q2000 performance is attributed to added merger costs and loan
    loss provisions as FEB's loan portfolio is substandard to BPI. Margins slightly
    improved in 2Q2000 but revenue growth was slower due to the economic slump. Consensus market rating action points to a further downgrade in Y2000 profits
    (approximately a 10% to 15% downgrade to around Php4b) as bank officials hint of
    further loan provisioning to extend in 2H2000. BPI's share price remains on a
    steady downtrend from 112 (May 1999) to its recent low at Php60. Moving
    averages and momentum signals show no apparent reversals yet but it has reached
    oversold status. At BPI's immediate price support at 60 reflects a significant
    74% retracement which now warrants a watch for a reversal pattern. Near-term
    pullback for a retest of 61 is possible as today's intraday low suppressed the
    impulse pattern where its past 3day trend reflected an upmove where its intraday
    low was consecutively higher. Sentiment towards the banking sector remains low
    but we see no major disappointment on BPI over the medium-term. As such, it
    remains likely that its key support at 60 will be firm (next immediate fibonacci
    downmove target is at 58) with minor downside risk. Accumulation of BPI is
    warranted. Immediate resistance is at 64.50 with the rally likely to extend
    towards 70.50/75.0 over the medium-term.

    Meralco (MER/MERB) - MERB was down Php0.50 at Php61.0. Meralco confirmed it
    established a new Php199m subsidiary - e-Meralco Ventures, Inc. which will
    handle Meralco's possible electronic commerce-related businesses which the
    company will pursue in the future. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION (MERB).
    Details of e-Meralco Ventures, Inc. has yet to be disseminated but initial
    market review points to e-Meralco's planned use of its wiring network as a
    strategic distribution advantage for its likely partnership with cable firms,
    etc. E-Meralco can also be a conduit for Meralco's BtoB and BtoC program plans.
    Such news is positive as its reflects Meralco's continued search to enhance
    shareholder value with its strategic investments. However, underlying
    disappointment on Meralco is its inability to get a distribution rate hike.
    Meralco's recently reported reasonably strong 2Q2000 performance has further
    enhanced expectations for 2H2000 given the acceptable sales growth and its improved efficiency. MERB is rated a BUY with its PE rating considerably
    acceptable at 18x and a P/Ebitda at 5.15. There are greater possible upside
    surprises (ie. rate hike grant and the block share sale at higher levels) while
    downside factors (further delay in rate hike) are well discounted to its share
    price. Near-term weakness points to immediate price support at 60/58.50 (risk
    to close the price gap at 58.0-58.50). Momentum is neutral but rising which
    supports a near-term price recovery set from its recent downtrend channel break
    at 61. Price recovery is certain over the medium-term to break resistance at
    62/65 with 80 as its first objective.


  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    GREED IS GOOD! :D:D:D
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    HSBC set to clinch bank purchase in the Philippines

    HSBC is close to forging an agreement to buy a thrift-banking unit of Equitable PCI Bank, the third largest bank in the Philippines, says a source familiar with the negotiations.

    “Equitable PCI has given [HSBC] its asking price and HSBC has indicated that it remains interested. There are indications that pricing will not stand in the way of an agreement being reached soon,” says the source.

    The source says Equitable PCI’s reported asking price of two times the book value for PCIB Savings Bank is well within the range of prices paid for banks over the past year. He adds the prospect for Equitable PCI and HSBC reaching an agreement is good despite a provision in the law, which restricts foreign banks from buying a local financial institution.

    On August 8 central bank governor, Rafael Buenaventura, said that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas would try to find a way out of the legal restriction to allow major foreign banks, such as HSBC, to expand their retail banking operations in the country. “What could happen is for Equitable PCI and HSBC to reach a provisional [sale-and-purchase] agreement which could later be confirmed by the [policy-making] monetary board of the central bank,” says the source.

    He says Equitable PCI does not foresee any difficulty in HSBC’s due diligence on PCIB Savings Bank because of its sound financial condition. As of the first quarter of the year, the bank had assets of P1.41 billion ($31.5 million), P531.19 million in loans and P695.57 million in deposits. It has 14 branches.
  • DAILODAILO Member PExer
    August 17, 2000 Thursday

    Philippine Composite Index: UP26.67pts (1.81%) at 1,499.74

    MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

    Outlook of increased market activity and news of the likely end of the hostage crisis were more than enough to lift the Phisix to positive territory throughout the trading session and close to a 20-day high. The country’s Finance go signal for the GSIS and SSS increased participation in market was welcomed with increased participation by local investors as it meant a buying support which will partly ease overall market fears. Considering the market’s lingering ecopolitical concerns, such buying support will theoretically limit price volatility specially on bearish trends. Likewise, increased trade activity or stock liquidity will slightly encourage foreign investor participation.

    Today’s xpected release of local and foreign hostages in Mindanao by extremist forces failed according to latest news. Albeit a cliff-hanger at current stage, hopes are high for the near-end of the hostage crisis which will improve general perception on country’s peace and order situation.

    Trade activity significantly increased to Php1.24b from Php785m yesterday. All sectors except for the mining sector gained as three (3) issues gained for every decliner. Index-linked stocks were broadly higher with 16 gainers, 2 decliners and 15 unchanged issues. Only JFC and LTDI registered a price decline.

    Focus of trade (most active) were on EBC, TEL, MERB, and MBT which accounted for 69.1% of total market turnover. EBC and TEL accounted for 35.8% and 20.8%, respectively.

    Index-lined movers were EBC (up 9.9% at Php72.0), FLI (up 6.% at Php1.76), DGTL (up 6% at Php0.71), BPC (up 3.9% at Php4.0), JGS (up 3.6% at Php2.90) and AC (up 2.9% at Php7.1).

    Other major movers were: OMW (up 33% at Php0.004) and EBCW (up 28.6% at Php2.7). Surprising increased activity and price gain were on BPC, CHTR and ALI.


    PRICE SCAN: GLO – intraday high at 17.0 is a 6-month high
    SPI – gap up on open at 9.10-9.20; intraday high at 9.5 is a 10week record high
    EBC – gap up on open at 65.50-68.50; close at 72 is a 6month record high
    EBCW – gap up on open at 2.10-2.20
    FLI – gap up on open at 1.66-1.68
    BPC – gap up on open at 3.85-3.90
    GLOW – gap up on open at 3.85-3.90
    MUSX – gap up on open at 5.0-5.10
    FPH – gap up on open at 20.0-20.25
    GEI – gap up on open at 0.30-0.31
    TEL – gap up on open at 685-690
    ABSP – gap up on open at 46.5-47.50

    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

    The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) is mulling imposing fines to Smart and Globe based on widespread consumer service failure. The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is considering imposing an advertising ban on Smart and Globe until services are improved.

    Key highlights of Globe Telecoms 2Q2000 investor briefing:
    a) strategic thrust moves towards profitability vs market growth – preferential promotion goes to post-paid as this provides higher average revenue per unit (ARPU); additional mobile subscribers are likely from the low-income bracket which is distinctively low revenue and very vulnerable to economic difficulties ; ARPU is therefore bias to decline until new services gain competence; subscriber growth will also taper down
    b) Prepaid problem tagged as the 222/223 problem has been corrected
    c) 2Q2000 expenses includes a Php272m write-off from receivables from Pacific Gateway Exchange (PGE) which filed for insolvency in the US – such provision is 100% and they are restricting further connections with PGE so there will be no further write-offs in the succeeding quarters
    d) Data services to be promoted and enhanced with further tie-ups – to expand its market and revenue base
    e) Reverse stock split rationale is based on the company’s forward looking plans to keep price of preferred shares narrower to the common shares
    f) PDR issuance is targeted this year but still dependent on market conditions
    g) On NTC issues:
    a) proposed extended life of prepaid cards – Globe still is opposing such move and explaining the cost side of maintaining prepaid subscribers;
    b) move towards pulse charging – unlikely to be fulfilled since interconnection charges should likewise be moved to pulse charging which will take considerable time;
    c) Islacom’s non-compliance on fixed line installation quota – still under debate but Globe maintains its position that it was able to attain the quota and will support further fixed line growth
    h) Churn rate: increased to 1.3% in 2Q from 1.2% in 1Q for postpaid; while prepaid increased to 1.4% in 2Q from 1.1% in 1Q
    i) Capex of $1b – clarified as an 18-month estimate but dependent on subscriber growth; $600m is definite for the next 6months
    j) Competition outlook given new licenses granted to Bayantel and Digitel: welcomed but consensus is concerning since the market has been highly penetrated and it takes considerable time to develop products, market and systems.

    SPI Technologies reportedly secured a $5m contruct for online content conversion project for Elseviere Science of Netherland. Company profit performance was not reported in yesterday’s briefing although indications show lower than 1Q2000 profits. Optimism on new service contracts are high as company officials indicate two(2) definite contracts before end-September, six (6) are ongoing discussions and about thirty (30) proposals are at hand and for preliminary review.

    Steniel Manufacturing (STN) reported a 2Q2000 profit of Php14m, a considerable turnaround from a Php7m loss registered in 1Q2000. (Financial details remains to be reviewed)



    CORPORATE NEWS/TRADING MARKET SCAN

    Uniwide Holdings Inc. (UW) – up Php0.02 at Php0.52. Only five more banks are due to sign the rehabilitation program, namely Land Bank, PNB, Allied Bank, East West Bank and ING. Six banks have inked its approval, these are UCPB, Global, IEXBank, East Asia and BPI. UW’s prime lots in Las Pinas will be converted to a condominium project to be held by another company whose ownership will be transferred to select banks for dacion en pago. Afterwhich, the memorandum of understanding with Casino to invest Php3.57b will push through. MARKET SCAN and PRICE ACTION. Development interest based on the rehabilitation program and Casino’s expected entry has yet to make a huge impact on price. Market watchers clearly remain skeptic of any major price turnaround on UW as a sell-off after Casino’s entry may be met by huge sellers long wanting to dispose their shareholdings. Despite the developmental turnaround, UW’s return to profitability is far-fetched given its negative capitalization. Any move for a capital hike will also be net negative. However, UW’s trend is medium-term bullish with prominent near-term risks. Risk comes from a toppish nearterm momentum with a price-momentum divergence signal now warranting a sell on strength. A close watch on the issue is necessary given a risk for a retest of 0.43 prior to any price breakout (a waveC of major wave2 is also an ongoing valid scenario). Most bullish Elliot scenario places the current upmove from its recent low at 0.43 as a wave2 bottom of a wave3 price rally. Such price pattern supports the speculative nature of the issue. Signal for re-entry is most preferred if the stock falls below 0.43. Bandwagon trend on a possible break of 0.54 is also a preferred entry level since the next fibonacci target is 0.81 and 1.02 . (Recommended Trading Action Summary: sell on strength from current levels; buy on breakout at 0.54 with sell targetzone at 0.81 or better; on weakness, ac

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