2016-2022 Philippine Economy Thread - Page 14 | Local and Foreign Issues | PinoyExchange
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  1. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by sargo View Post


    Dutete's performance on his first year as president - from flat to negative
    Of course! Coming from you.

    ...should be -1000!

  2. #262

  3. #263
    ...just because
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    Labor groups...LABAS sa kalsada!!!



    Quote Originally Posted by _knorr_ View Post
    https://s26.postimg.org/fvygkjqk9/2017-07-13_192043.jpg

  4. #264
    Effects of peak oil coupled with increased global debt.

  5. #265
    Repent you savages! Repent! ach_choo's Avatar
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    What Peak Oil?

  6. #266
    Quote Originally Posted by ach_choo View Post
    What Peak Oil?
    Confirmed by HSBC:

    https://medium.com/insurge-intellige...8-b2f81f85686b

    The problem is that many are looking at the price per barrel. They're not aware that production cost is $50 to $90.

    The high production cost led to over $3 trillion in debt for the oil industry (according to the BIS), and fallout from increasing debt is now seen.

  7. #267
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    Trade deficit widens to record, peso extends slump

    MANILA - The country's trade deficit surged to a record in May as imports outpaced exports, official data released on Tuesday showed, underscoring the cause of the peso's drop to its lowest levels in a decade.

    The $2.75-billion deficit was the highest since 1980, when external trade data was made available, according to Bloomberg. It also widened from $2.24 billion during the same period last year

    The peso weakened to P50.77 to the dollar in early trading from P50.695 on Monday, hovering at its lowest levels since September 2006.

    Exports rose for a 6th straight month in May, up 13.7 percent to $5.49 billion, driven by hefty increases in shipments of cathodes and refined copper, coconut oil, other mineral products, the Philippine Statistics Authority said.

    Japan was the biggest export market in May but orders shrank 9.4 percent from a year earlier. Shipments to the United States rose 7.1 percent, while exports to Hong Kong and China rose 32.7 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, data showed.

    Imports climbed 16.6 percent to $8.24 billion, reflecting higher purchases of metal products, transport equipment, iron and steel as the government boosts infrastructure spending.

  8. #268
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    S&P slashes Philippine GDP growth projection

    S&P Global Ratings has tempered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for the Philippines this year, according to a new report published yesterday, even as it continues to see a healthy external position and debt burden for the economy.

    The international debt watcher now expects the Philippine economy to expand by 6.4%, slower than the 6.6% forecast given in March, according to its midyear Asia-Pacific Sovereign Rating Trends report.

    At the same time, S&P retained its 6.4% growth forecast for the Philippines for 2018, to be followed by a pickup to 6.6% in 2019 and 6.7% in 2020, according to its latest estimates.

    It did not give any explanation for the revision.

    S&P maintained its “BBB” rating with a “stable” outlook on the Philippines in April, with the view that domestic conditions “remain conducive for sustained economic growth.”

    A stable outlook means that the country’s ratings are unlikely to change over the next year or so.

    The credit rater likewise expects price increases to remain manageable over the next four years, with estimates for annual inflation forecast falling within the central bank’s 2-4% target band. For 2017, S&P expects inflation to average 3.4%, slightly higher than the BSP’s latest 3.1% forecast.

    Prices of basic goods and services inched up by 3.1% from a year ago in the first semester, according to latest data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.

    In its latest assessment for the country’s credit rating, S&P counted the Philippines’ external position and fiscal and debt burden as “strengths,” largely due to the hefty dollar reserves held by the central bank and the declining share of debt to gross domestic product (GDP).

    Gross international reserves totalled $81.413 billion as of end-June, enough to settle 8.7 months’ worth of import payments and is well above the three-month international standard.

    The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio also slid to 41.87% in the first quarter from 43.56% the previous year, according to the Finance department.

    The debt watcher stood “neutral” on its institutional and monetary assessments, as well as on budget performance.

    It is now watching if the government can stay the reform course.

    “We may raise the ratings if the newly calibrated fiscal program under this administration significantly boosts investment and economic growth prospects, or if improvements in the policy environment lead us to a better assessment of institutional and governance effectiveness,” S&P’s mid-year report read.

    The country’s “stable” outlook means ratings will likely steady over the next 12-18 months.

    “We may lower the ratings if the reform agenda stalls or if the recalibrated fiscal program leads to higher-than-expected deficits sufficient to reverse the progress made under the previous administration.”

    The Finance department hopes to implement its first of up to five tax reform proposals by January 2018. The first package now awaits Senate approval after the House of Representatives passed it on May 31. The additional revenues are expected to help fund the Duterte government’s P8.4-trillion infrastructure spending plan over the next six years.

  9. #269
    Bane of All Things Chaka Glinda's Avatar
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    Debt-to-GDP ratio to drop by 2022 – DBM

    The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) on Friday said the ratio of national government debt to Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) could drop to 38.1 percent by 2022 despite the implementation of the government’s ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program, which would require borrowing more money from domestic and foreign sources.

    In a statement, the Budget department said government’s plan to spend P8 trillion to P9 trillion from 2017 to 2022 to fund what is dubbed as the “Golden Age of Infrastructure” in the Philippines would increase the planned budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP from 2 percent over the next six years.

    To finance the programmed deficit, the government will borrow money at an 80-20 mix in favor of domestic sources, to mitigate against foreign exchange risks, it said.

    “Despite increasing the planned deficit, the Philippine economy will outgrow its debt burden as economic expansion (GDP growth) outpaces the growth in the rate of borrowing. Hence, the fiscal strategy is manageable and sustainable,” the DBM said.

    The agency said the debt-to GDP ratio—which indicates the country’s ability to pay back its debt—is projected to decline to 38.1 percent in 2022 from 40.6 percent in 2016.

    “With a deficit spending of 3 percent of GDP, while growth rate is targeted to reach 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 7 percent to 8 percent from 2018 to 2022, (plus inflation of 2 percent to 4 percent), it’s clear that the ratio is bound to fall,” it explained.

    The DBM also claimed that compared with its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) neighbors, the Philippines continues to post a steady debt-to-GDP ratio.

    It cited Singapore whose debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 98.2 percent in 2016, although it is a developed economy. But it noted that Thailand was almost at the same level as the Philippines, with 43.1 percent.

    “Concerns that the Duterte administration’s fiscal strategy may lead to indebtedness are therefore unsubstantiated, considering the current and expected levels of debt-to-GDP ratio, the hefty gross international reserves, and the low-interest-rate regime,” it said.

    Latest data showed that the country’s dollar reserves reached $81.41 billion as of June this year and would be able to cover 8.7 months’ worth of imports.

    “The rule of thumb is that foreign reserves should cover at least three months’ worth of imports. These foreign reserves serve as a buffer to protect an economy from external crises such as severe foreign exchange depreciation,” it said.

    Thus, the Philippine economy, along with its Asean neighbors (except Vietnam), remains secure with its level of international reserves, it said, adding that reserves would remain stable through the rest of the Duterte administration, hedging against external risks and other fiscal problems.

    The DBM also said lower interest rates would stimulate economic activity.

    “When domestic interest rates remain low, this encourages investment within the economy due to easier access to credit. As such, lower domestic interest rates influence economic expansion,” it explained.

    Moreover, the government’s fiscal strategy is manageable and sustainable, as expected gains from infrastructure development will fuel economic growth, the DBM said.

    “This growth will outpace the debt burden, and suitably, the Philippines will not be plunged into unreasonable indebtedness,” it said.

  10. #270
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    DBM: Duterte’s ‘Build, Build, Build’ will not cause a debt crisis

    The “Dutertenomics” thrust of “Build, Build, Build” aimed at ramping up infrastructure development, which critics compare to former President Marcos’ public investment program, would not result in a debt crisis similar to the one that “plagued” the economy in the early 1980s, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said Friday.

    Also, amid expectations of sustained economic growth in the medium term, the country’s debt position would remain stable despite the planned increase in borrowings to fund the Duterte administration’s ambitious pipeline of infrastructure projects, the DBM said in a statement.

    “Prior to the crisis in 1983, capital outlays as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) hovered at 5 percent. This is comparable to the projected capital investment program of the Duterte administration,” the DBM said.

    For 2017, capital outlays as a share of GDP had been programmed at 5.7 percent, while the infrastructure spending-to-GDP ratio was at 5.3 percent.
    The capital outlays-to-GDP ratio had been projected to rise to 7.5 percent by 2022, alongside an increase in the share of the infrastructure budget to 6.9 percent of GDP.

    But the DBM said a difference lies in the sense that “the Duterte administration is more focused on infrastructure rather than other capital outlays such as corporate equity and capital transfers to local government units.”

    Also, “economic conditions have changed that will enable the Philippine economy to weather external headwinds and avoid an economic/debt crisis,” the DBM added.

    “Lending rates are at an all-time low; the Philippines gross international reserves are hefty; its macroeconomic fundamentals are sound with declining debt-to-GDP ratios and prospective growth rate of 7-8 percent pegged for the medium-term. These factors cannot be said for the years leading up to the 1983 Philippine economic/debt crisis, which led to skyrocketing debt-to-GDP ratios and debt service payments,” the DBM noted.

    As such, the DBM claimed that “concerns over a looming debt crisis, as a result of the Duterte administration’s ‘Build, Build, Build’ program, are unwarranted.”

    “Economic conditions have changed for the better, and we have learned from t

  11. #271
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    Shares down on GDP outlook downgrade


    PHILIPPINE shares succumbed on the last trading day of the week after Standard & Poor Global Ratings earlier downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for the Philippines.

    The bellwether PSEi index shed 50.95 points on Friday or 0.64 percent to finish at 7,885.90. The broader All Shares lost 17.90 points or 0.38 percent to finish at 4,735.82.

    “Investors cashed in on gains after S&P’s lower-than-expected 2017 GDP outlook to 6.4 percent from the 6.6-percent previous estimate,” IB Gimenez Securities research head Joylin Telagen said.

    “I think most investors want to see how fiscal reforms and policy improvements will affect the Philippine growth story. So it’s a challenge to the administration to put these promised reform and policies forward,” she added.

    The international debt watcher on Thursday slashed its GDP outlook for the Philippines without explanations.

    Summit Securities Inc. President Harry Liu however said investors sold off with the lack of market-moving news that could push the index above the 8,000 resistance level.

    “The market tried to go the 8,000 [level]but it succumbed to the resistance again. Basically it just showed that there is nothing negative, nothing positive that is happening,” Liu said. “It is just moving sideways.”

    He said the market would only break through the resistance once the government implements its comprehensive tax reform program, and the crisis Marawi City is resolved.

    Likewise, Regina Capital Development Corp. President Marita Limlingan said: “Philippine markets dropped due to lack of marker-making catalysts and difficulty in breaking past critical resistance levels of 7,950 and 8,000 respectively.”

    Nearly all sectoral indices were in the red. Property went down by 1.13 percent, followed by financials (-0.86 percent), holding firms (-0.47 percent), industrials (-0.13 percent), and mining and oil (-0.11 percent). Services was the sole gainer, going up by 0.11 percent on Friday.

    Among the most actively traded issues, Lucio Tan’s LT Group Inc. was the top gainer at 7.45 percent, while the Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. fell by 2.44 percent.

    Over 2.5 billion issues changed hands, valued at P7.48 billion.

    Market breadth was negative, as decliners outnumbered gainers, 104 to 94, while 54 issues were unchanged.

  12. #272
    Bane of All Things Chaka Glinda's Avatar
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    PPA revisits 2017 cargo growth targets

    The Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) is revisiting its cargo volume forecast for 2017 after posting favorable and encouraging cargo volume in the first five months of the year.

    The PPA said the positive performance in almost all of its ports suggest that the anticipated negative effects of several conditions at the start of the year did not materialize.

    According to PPA General Manager Jay Daniel Santiago, the strong performance of the import industry as well as the resilience of the domestic market somehow shielded the agency from the effects of the deteriorating foreign exchange rate as well as the reduced mining industry operations.

    “I directed all Port Management Offices nationwide to revisit their targets for 2017 based on the strong performance of the agency for the period in review,” Santiago explained.

    “The continued robust port operations is mainly attributed to the sustained robust economic activity in our ports amplified by strong domestic consumption and generally positive business atmosphere,” he added.

    “The efficient movement of cargoes coming in and out of the port area since the implementation of the Terminal Appointment Booking System [TABS] and other decongestion measures are key factors in the progressive operations at our Manila ports,” Santiago added.

    Latest cargo data showed that total cargo volume as of end May grew by 9.36 percent or 103.556 million metric tons compared to 94.692 MMT handled in the same period last year.

    Domestic cargoes went up by 9.27 percent or 3.583 MMT, with 42.251 MMT registered this period against last year’s 38.669 MMT. The growth is indicated by the rise in quantity of trade transactions that flowed in and out of the ports and driven by the high dependence on water-borne transport for the shipment of commodities within the country. Foreign cargo throughput likewise posted a 9.43-percent increase from 56.023 MMT in 2016 to 61.304 MMT this year.

    Container traffic notably progressed to 2.911 million twenty-foot equivalent units this year, which is 13.71-percent higher than the 2.560 million TEUs handled in the same period in 2016. Foreign container volume contributed most in the recorded improvement of 12.73 percent (195,056 TEUs) while domestic containers recorded 15.17 percent (156,056 TEUs).

    Passenger traffic meanwhile, sustained its upward performance albeit minimal with 2.60 percent (832,311) as of end of May. The enhanced passenger volume was steered by the amplified volume of travelers during the observance of the Holy Week in addition to the continuous reliance of the sea-traveling public on Ro-Ro vessels, fast crafts and motorized bancas as primary mode of transportation for domestic interisland connectivity.

    Ship calls vaguely fell by 0.58 percent (1,064) with domestic vessels recording most of the posted decrease. The reduced vessel traffic arose from successive cancellation of trips, mostly of motorizedbancas and fast crafts due to impact of strong southwest monsoon; strong undercurrent water condition; gale warnings by the Philippine Coast Guard; and, routine maintenance of passenger vessels which limited the number of trips.

    As for productivity, Manila ports’ performance indicates no sign of congestion problems, with combined yard utilization of 57 percent berth occupancy rate and quay crane productivity of 26 moves an hour per crane.

  13. #273
    Repent you savages! Repent! ach_choo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by paenggoy View Post
    Confirmed by HSBC:

    https://medium.com/insurge-intellige...8-b2f81f85686b

    The problem is that many are looking at the price per barrel. They're not aware that production cost is $50 to $90.

    The high production cost led to over $3 trillion in debt for the oil industry (according to the BIS), and fallout from increasing debt is now seen.
    Production cost above the $50-$60 average prices are for russian arctic oil, euopean and brazilian biofuels, and shale oil fracking in the US. Arabian oil fields and north sea oil still produce at less than $30 per barrel.

    Still no indication of a so-called peak oil.

  14. #274
    German BPO? Not the usual BPO sources you hear.

    Four German BPOs expand in PH

    Four German companies plan to set up or expand their shared services and customer support operations in the Philippines to serve their global clients, according to the Trade Department.

    Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said the Philippines was now attracting more German and other European companies in the BPO sector.

    “The IT-BPM [information technology-business process management] sector of Germany selected the Philippines as the location of their shared service centers catering to the Asia Pacific markets,” he said.

    Read more from the link.

  15. #275
    Sarap mag follow ng infra updates sa admin na ito.

    Gov’t set to approve P285-B rail projects

    MANILA, Philippines - Two big-ticket rail projects collectively valued at P285 billion are slated for approval by the NEDA board in its next meeting, according to the list of flagship projects provided by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).

    The projects are the P134-billion Philippine National Railways South Commuter Line (Tutuban-Los Baños) and the P151-billion PNR Long-Haul (Calamba-Bicol), both of which will be funded by official development assistance (ODA) loans.

    Both railways are part of the North-South Railway Projects (NSRP) -South Line that will revive the south railway of the PNR.




    The 72-kilometer commuter line will consist of three tracks that will run from Tutuban in Manila to Los Baños, Laguna while the 581-kilometer long-haul railway will run from Laguna to Bicol.

  16. #276
    Good start easing up the business environment in the country.

    Government to allow 70% foreign equity in telcos, utilities

    President Duterte wants to allow foreign investors to own up to 70 percent of telecommunication firms and all public utilities, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), and this will probably be reflected in the updated Regular Foreign Investment Negative List (RFINL) due in August.

    Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said this is in line with the President’s campaign promise to attract more foreign investors and give Filipinos better services.

    “The President’s preference is up to 70-percent foreign ownership and 30-percent local ownership for utilities. [On] land, his preference is [to] lease up to 50 years, renewable for another 50 years,” Pernia said. “That is what he has said even during the campaign and he hasn’t made any changes yet on that previous decision.”

  17. #277
    Let's not forget the energy sector!

    The Philippines is aiming for an energy boom with Duterte's latest reform

    Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's latest attempt to reform the Philippine economy is a major change for the energy industry there.

    The Philippines, one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, could see a host of new energy projects coming online after Duterte changed the approval system from a multi-year gantlet to a 30-day process.

    Speaking with CNBC on Tuesday, Philippine Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi said that energy project approvals used to take up to three years, and he explained that the shift was meant to hasten the expansion of the nation's power capacity to meet growing demand.

    "Because of the need, we have to build our capacity fast," Cusi said. "So in 30 days, investors can be assured that they can implement the project."

  18. #278

  19. #279
    Quote Originally Posted by ach_choo View Post
    Production cost above the $50-$60 average prices are for russian arctic oil, euopean and brazilian biofuels, and shale oil fracking in the US. Arabian oil fields and north sea oil still produce at less than $30 per barrel.

    Still no indication of a so-called peak oil.
    Saudi Arabia needs it at $75 to balance its budget.

    North Sea oil peaked in 1999, and oil and gas revenues have dropped from a 2009 peak.

    Overall, the IEA reports that conventional production peaked back in 2005. The EIA argues that unconventional production will peak soon because the capex is too high. The oil industry now owes almost $3 trillion, and is using up its cash flows to cover interests for only $0.5 trillion of that amount due during the next few years. As it is, it had to layoff thousands of employees and cut over $1 trillion in investments.

    In terms of global oil production per capita, that peaked back in 1979.

    Global and oil discoveries are at a 70-year low.

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