PH soon to join 'tiger economies', claims expert

[prEttyInDistr3ss]

Philippines may soon join the ranks of the world's "tiger economies," an international expert said.

Ruchir Sharma, chief of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in his book “Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles” that Philippines is positioned for huge growth.

"Now at long last, the Philippines looks poised to resume a period of strong growth," Sharma said in his now best-selling piece.

"The new president, Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III, probably has enough support, and looks likely to generate just enough reform momentum, to get the job done. The Aquino name is still virtually synonymous with the promise of change," Sharma also wrote.

Asia's tiger economies include Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

'PH: No longer a joke'

Sharma's book emphasized that in 1960s, Philippines is Asia's second-highest per capital income earner and only behind Japan but the country's "fortunes have shifted dramatically since then."

"Malaysia and Thailand followed in the 1980s and China in the 1990s. Then in 2009, in a moment the Manila elite thought it would never see, Indonesia's boom made Indonesians richer than Filipinos for the first time modern history," Sharma wrote.

Sharma noted that in 2010, upon his visit to the Philippines, the country was "still the undisputed laggard of Asia, a nation mired in chronic incompetence."

He lamented the absence of high-speed trains, and the good old jeepney remaining a favorite in public transport--and yes, he also mentioned the infamous Manila airport.

But he believes that under the Aquino administration, PH may once again shine.

"Aquino is delegating power to competent technocrats and seems to understand what needs to be done to get the lights back on," he said.

However, before PH returns to its old glory, it should first see a "modicum of political stability and some basic economic sense," the book noted.

Sharma said an economic surge may happen if PH rightfully manages its vast resources--having the world's fifth-richest in natural resources such as oil, copper, nickel, gold, and silver.

Surprisingly, for Sharma, PH's booming population is not a disadvantage. In fact, he claims that the high population is a "big economic plus" because "the concentration of people and business drives growth."

He also mentioned Pinoys' ability to speak English, leading the country to becoming the best choice of business process outsourcing-a $9 billion industry employing 350,000 people.

"It could be made to happen, if the third Aquino can get the people-power revolution right," Sharma said in his book.


http://ph.news.yahoo.com/ph-soon-to-...ms-expert.html

[prEttyInDistr3ss]

What a load of bullocks!!!!

[4Wheeler]

We've been hearing that claim over the last 20 years.

Still waiting......

[jpd74]

another fiction ...

[tmcr7]

PH soon to join 'tiger economies', claims expert

http://ph.news.yahoo.com/ph-soon-to-...ms-expert.html

Philippines may soon join the ranks of the world's "tiger economies," an international expert said.

Ruchir Sharma, chief of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in his book “Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles” that Philippines is positioned for huge growth.

"Now at long last, the Philippines looks poised to resume a period of strong growth," Sharma said in his now best-selling piece.

"The new president, Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III, probably has enough support, and looks likely to generate just enough reform momentum, to get the job done. The Aquino name is still virtually synonymous with the promise of change," Sharma also wrote.

Asia's tiger economies include Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

'PH: No longer a joke'

Sharma's book emphasized that in 1960s, Philippines is Asia's second-highest per capital income earner and only behind Japan but the country's "fortunes have shifted dramatically since then."

"Malaysia and Thailand followed in the 1980s and China in the 1990s. Then in 2009, in a moment the Manila elite thought it would never see, Indonesia's boom made Indonesians richer than Filipinos for the first time modern history," Sharma wrote.

Sharma noted that in 2010, upon his visit to the Philippines, the country was "still the undisputed laggard of Asia, a nation mired in chronic incompetence."

He lamented the absence of high-speed trains, and the good old jeepney remaining a favorite in public transport--and yes, he also mentioned the infamous Manila airport.

But he believes that under the Aquino administration, PH may once again shine.

"Aquino is delegating power to competent technocrats and seems to understand what needs to be done to get the lights back on," he said.

However, before PH returns to its old glory, it should first see a "modicum of political stability and some basic economic sense," the book noted.

Sharma said an economic surge may happen if PH rightfully manages its vast resources--having the world's fifth-richest in natural resources such as oil, copper, nickel, gold, and silver.

Surprisingly, for Sharma, PH's booming population is not a disadvantage. In fact, he claims that the high population is a "big economic plus" because "the concentration of people and business drives growth."

He also mentioned Pinoys' ability to speak English, leading the country to becoming the best choice of business process outsourcing-a $9 billion industry employing 350,000 people.

"It could be made to happen, if the third Aquino can get the people-power revolution right," Sharma said in his book.

[tmcr7]

Good news for Filipinos in general. Bad news na naman para sa mga PNoy haters.

[RedbeD]

DUPLICATE THREAD.

Mods, please merge with:

http://www.pinoyexchange.com/forums/...d.php?t=577830


kthxbye

[peternato9]

sino yung "third Aquino"? si Bam Aquino? eh baliw pala tong bombay na toh eh.

[Singularity]

^ Mukhang mas maayos ang usapan sa thread na ito.

[SeraphicVision]

Ruchir Sharma's book, where the news article was based, is a poorly-researched book with glaring inaccuracies. Here is one very negative review:

http://www.amazon.com/review/R1F5SNA...R1F5SNAS4U7024

The book is poorly sourced and wrong in so many areas. For example:

Page 41: "In 2002 Google purchased a California-based social networking site called Orkut, to compete with Myspace and Facebook in forty-eight languages..."

FACT: In 2002, Facebook and Myspace did not exist. Facebook, founded in Feb. 2004, and Myspace, founded in Aug. 2003, came between Google's in-house launch of Orkut in June 2004. Yup, Google didn't even buy a "California-based social networking" company called Orkut. Orkut Büyükkökte, an employee at Google, built the site while working for the company during his free time in 2004 (not 2002).

Page 109: "In the early years of the Depression the United States followed the advice not of Keynes but of the then-more fashionable Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek, who counseled that the job of government in the face of a downturn was to stay out of the way and let market forces liquidate the deadbeats and deadwood in the economy. The result was a severe U.S. contraction and 25 percent unemployment rate, but by 1950 the economy had nearly doubled in size compared with the 1929 peak. The pain had unleashed a boom, just as Hayek said it would. Contrast that to Japan, which responded to its severe recession in 1990 with every possible stimulus and bailout known to Keynesians (and then some), and today has an economy only 20 percent larger than it was in 1990."

FACT: He's a Hayek apologist! Where he gets it so wrong: "...but by 1950 the economy had nearly doubled." Sharma credits this "doubling" to Hayek counseling the government to stay out of the way, but in reality, the economy recovered after the government increased spending (a Keynesian idea) to support World War II between 1939 to 1945. It was government spending from World War II, not Hayek who spurred the economy after the Great Depression.

FACT: Japan followed the economic advice of Milton Friedman, not John Maynard Keynes, to solve the nation's imbalances in the 90s. It's important to understand the difference between monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus in order to catch the lie in this case. In the 90s, as Japan's economy started to tank, the government, instead of boosting government spending, resorted to lowering the interest rates and using other monetary stimulus (not more spending) to control the supply of money. This failed. As a result, Japan's government proposed irrelevant Thatcherite supply-side changes, including privatizing the post office. This also failed. In fact, Japan is only now starting to grow, at a rate of 4.1 percent as of May, after the nation ignored Friedman and listed to Keynes by boosting fiscal spending.

These discrepancies, in some cases small (like Orkut) and others large, make me not trust the author one bit. The entire book is poorly sourced, and misinformed. It makes me question his credentials to work for Morgan Stanley because he's clearly and poetically dumb.

[dogster_jr]

What a load of bullocks!!!!

We've been hearing that claim over the last 20 years.

Still waiting......

another fiction ...

PH: The Next Eleven

According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippines is projected to be the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050 (or earlier) overtaking Italy provided it sustain its economic growth. Growth Could Be Much Better If Conditions Improve.

Lower middle income group. This group, with
incomes between $20,000 and $40,000, would include
many of the N-11. Vietnam and Iran have the potential
to become as rich as Germany today. Indonesia, Egypt,
Philippines and India might become as rich (or even
richer) than the richest N-11 country today, Korea.

The Philippines was then one of the richest countries in Asia, but due to political instability and adoption of inconsistent economic policies, it took a turn to being one of the poorest. The Philippines, despite its relatively small land area, has the world’s 12th largest population. This leads to many social problems such as poverty, unemployment, and crime. However, the Philippines is now growing fast and needs are being fulfilled. It performed well compared to other Asian countries and is now considered as a newly industrialized country. It had shown its economic stability in facing financial crises.

The Philippines in 2050

GDP in USD: $3.010 trillion
GDP per capita: $20,388
GDP growth (2015–2050): 5.2%
Total population: 148 million

Source: Goldman Sachs - Global Economic Paper No. 153 (28 March 2007) http://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/c...ldmansachs.pdf

Source: Castle Stone Management Presentation http://www.castlestonemanagement.com...nloads/208.pdf

[tmcr7]

Sorry I did not see the other thread which was started with a "HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! ROTFLMAO" on the title. I just thought that it would be more objective by not adding my own bias on the title.

[tmcr7]

The book is rated 4.5 stars out of 5. And it is well received in economic circles:

Here is the most helpful review:

http://www.amazon.com/review/RRJR4O4...#RRJR4O45WML4Z

Looks like a lot of people agree with what this expert is saying.

[whadahek]

Whether the author is overly optimistic or not, we pinoys owe ourselves to believe something positive about our country no matter who is the president.

No matter who gets the credit as long as the country progresses, it should be fine with all of us.

[Singularity]

As long as the benefits are inclusive.

[tmcr7]

Some people really need to stop being fixated on their hatred towards the president and open their eyes to the better future. If a foreigner, (and expert) can see the good in our country, why can't we?

[admiral__cidric]

Bad news ito sa mga haters!

[goat1230]

maniniwala lang ako kapag naramdaman na ng mga simpleng mamamayan tulad ko ang mga nakasulat sa itaas.

[mark.dubai]

^ Yes. Ako rin.

[TuxTips]

Been hearing that since Ramos administration, do you know what happens next? BOOOMMM