More RETROGRESSION for US Immigrant Visas

[chmchrm]

guys, may idea na ba kayo kung hanggang kailan ang retrogression?? sana naman sa march, mag move na and mga pd.

[bmw13cy]

Hi! I am petitioned as F2B & PD is Aug 99. I'm done with the payment of fees and submission of the required documents. I received an email yesterday from NVC with three page attachments. First page is for the petitioner (re: submission of lacking documents- no longer applicable coz we have already completed)Second page is the document cover sheet with barcode and case number and the 3rd page which contains this letter:

Instructions for (my name)
The NVC has received the information you submitted and placed it in your case file. You will be contacted when your petition is sent to the U.S Embassy or Consulate for further processing.

What's next na kaya?

[JA]

Hi! I am petitioned as F2B & PD is Aug 99. I'm done with the payment of fees and submission of the required documents. I received an email yesterday from NVC with three page attachments. First page is for the petitioner (re: submission of lacking documents- no longer applicable coz we have already completed)Second page is the document cover sheet with barcode and case number and the 3rd page which contains this letter:

Instructions for (my name)
The NVC has received the information you submitted and placed it in your case file. You will be contacted when your petition is sent to the U.S Embassy or Consulate for further processing.

What's next na kaya?

Tne NVC will hold your case until your priority date is current and your interview is scheduled. What's next? Just sit back and wait.

[greggy279]

NVS sent an email to my petitioner advising us if we are affected by retrogession, we should contact US embassy in Manila to inform them (applied only if we had done medical exam and we have the visa interview schedule OR has received request to take medical exam and has visa interview sched). But since, di naman current ang PD ko nung nagka-retro last December and AOS form pa lang naman ang na-submit namin, I believe no need to inform na ang NVC or US embassy right?

[greggy279]

The fees do not expire. The only time you will have to pay them again is if YOU let more than one year pass without moving along with your case. For example, you have one year from the date you paid the fees to submit documents (or even have some other contact with the NVC about your case). If the NVC does not hear from you in a year, you may have to repay the fees. However, if your case is complete and ready for interview, but there is a long delay of more than a year before your embassy appointment, the delay is not your fault and you do not have to repay the fees.

Electronic filing of the Affidavit of Support and the DS-230 is not yet available for Manila cases. Your papers must be mailed to the NVC. So If you are processing in Manila, ignore all the mentions of CEAC, DS-260s and the E-Mail Electronic Processing Program.

It is smart to mail all of the documents to the NVC in one package. You should complete the DS-230, gather the required documents, then send them to your petitioner to be mailed to NVC with the Affidavit of Support. Within 1 year!

HI JA, ask ko lang, when is the best time to pass DS230? meron kase akong two years na bond. I went to the US for training sponsored by USAID nung October 2006 and got back November 2006. I stayed in the Philippines for 20 months lang after the training and went to other country to work on July 2008. Do I need to come back in the Philippines and stay 4 months before I can pass DS-230 form?

[greggy279]

guys, may idea na ba kayo kung hanggang kailan ang retrogression?? sana naman sa march, mag move na and mga pd.

iyan ay isang magandang tanong na walang tamang sagot! wish ko lang gumalaw ng kahit ilang buwan ang PD next month!

[JA]

The March Visa Bulletin can be found at http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5337.html



FB-1......15 Dec 1994........Advancing 4 1/2 months since February.
.............................................(was 1 April 1997, in December)


FB-2A......1 Jan 2007........Regressing one year since February.
.............................................(was 1 Aug 2010, in December)


FB-2B......1 Aug 1999.......Advancing two months since February.
.............................................(was 1 Sept 2002, in Oct.)


FB-3........8 Dec 1991......Advancing 1 1/2 months since February.
.............................................(was 1 March 1 1995, in Oct.)


FB-4.......15 Jan 1988......No change since February.
.............................................(was 1 April 1991, in Oct.)

[JA]

HI JA, ask ko lang, when is the best time to pass DS230? meron kase akong two years na bond. I went to the US for training sponsored by USAID nung October 2006 and got back November 2006. I stayed in the Philippines for 20 months lang after the training and went to other country to work on July 2008. Do I need to come back in the Philippines and stay 4 months before I can pass DS-230 form?

Greggy279 my friend, I still think you need have an experienced immigration atty view all your J-1 documents and be sure enough in their advice to put it in writing!

[greggy279]

umabante ng 2 months ang FB-2B category. magandang movement eto compared last month na 2 weeks lang ang inabante.. sana sa susunod madoble na.. but looking at the trail of retrogession, it seems na hindi magkakaroon ng dramatic big movement. I'm basing it from the retrogession movement years ago kung saan two weeks to one month lang ang movement. See the statistics on FY 2006 and 2007 kung saan nagkaroon ng retrogession:

FY 2006
July 2006 - 8-Jul-96
Aug 2006 - 1-Dec-92
Seo 2006 - 1-Jan-94

FY 2007
Oct 2006 - 22-Jul-96
Nov 2006 - 15-Aug-96
Dec 2006 - 22-Aug-96
Jan 2007 - 8-Sep-96
Feb 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Mar 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Apr 2007 - 1-Oct-96
May 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jun 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jul 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Aug 2007 - 22-Oct-96
Sep 2007 - 15-Nov-96

[tartarman]

yaikks di nagkaron ng changes/movement ang F4 category, PD namin is 1991, by the looks of it mukhang 1 year pa aantayin namin bago pa maging current sa PD namin...

[lechon x]

parang di nag kakalayo situation natin tama ba 2001 naman umalis *** parents ko then ni petition ako nila under f2b category aug 2001 over age din ako. almost 10 yrs narin ako naiwan dito sa pinas. *** mother ko till now di pa siya nag apply ng citizen niya. baka daw malipat daw ako category pag nag citizen siya.

This is the topic of citizen pinoy today. Mas mabilis daw ang parent green card holder petition kasya citizen.(parents to kids over 21 yo) This nanay who was already here for 4 years wasted the 4 yrs cuz she still did not file the petition. She should have filed as soon as she got her greencard.

[Pauzz]

This is the topic of citizen pinoy today. Mas mabilis daw ang parent green card holder petition kasya citizen.(parents to kids over 21 yo) This nanay who was already here for 4 years wasted the 4 yrs cuz she still did not file the petition. She should have filed as soon as she got her greencard.

ahh i see sa ***** di pa po nag apply ng citizen mother ko. di parin ako married . thanks.

[Pauzz]

Ayun at least nag move ng 2months ang f2b category. sana sa next bulletin mas madagdagan ang pag abante lahat ng category ;-)

[chmchrm]

yaikks di nagkaron ng changes/movement ang F4 category, PD namin is 1991, by the looks of it mukhang 1 year pa aantayin namin bago pa maging current sa PD namin...

same here, F4 din category namin. Hay, grabe, hindi man lang nag move. PD namin is September 1990. Nakapagmedical na nga kami and all, may interview appointment na kami last October 2010 kaso nahold kasi kelangang mag sputum ng mom ko then nung lumabas results, wala na, retrogression na. Hay.

[chmchrm]

umabante ng 2 months ang FB-2B category. magandang movement eto compared last month na 2 weeks lang ang inabante.. sana sa susunod madoble na.. but looking at the trail of retrogession, it seems na hindi magkakaroon ng dramatic big movement. I'm basing it from the retrogession movement years ago kung saan two weeks to one month lang ang movement. See the statistics on FY 2006 and 2007 kung saan nagkaroon ng retrogession:

FY 2006
July 2006 - 8-Jul-96
Aug 2006 - 1-Dec-92
Seo 2006 - 1-Jan-94

FY 2007
Oct 2006 - 22-Jul-96
Nov 2006 - 15-Aug-96
Dec 2006 - 22-Aug-96
Jan 2007 - 8-Sep-96
Feb 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Mar 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Apr 2007 - 1-Oct-96
May 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jun 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jul 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Aug 2007 - 22-Oct-96
Sep 2007 - 15-Nov-96

may idea po ba kayo kung gano katagal *** pinakamatagal na retrogression?

[JA]

umabante ng 2 months ang FB-2B category. magandang movement eto compared last month na 2 weeks lang ang inabante.. sana sa susunod madoble na.. but looking at the trail of retrogession, it seems na hindi magkakaroon ng dramatic big movement. I'm basing it from the retrogession movement years ago kung saan two weeks to one month lang ang movement. See the statistics on FY 2006 and 2007 kung saan nagkaroon ng retrogession:

FY 2006
July 2006 - 8-Jul-96
Aug 2006 - 1-Dec-92
Seo 2006 - 1-Jan-94

FY 2007
Oct 2006 - 22-Jul-96
Nov 2006 - 15-Aug-96
Dec 2006 - 22-Aug-96
Jan 2007 - 8-Sep-96
Feb 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Mar 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Apr 2007 - 1-Oct-96
May 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jun 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Jul 2007 - 1-Oct-96
Aug 2007 - 22-Oct-96
Sep 2007 - 15-Nov-96

I like your research and I hope your conclusion is correct. To compare two periods of retrogression, you have to consider the different reasons that caused the two retrogressions.

The 2006 regression was a simple stop procedure because most of the FY06 FB-2B visa numbers were issued in the first 10 months of the FY. Once the new numbers became available in October (the beginning of FY07), the big jump was just restoring the numbers back to the previous July level, plus two weeks.

Extend your numbers back to the beginning of FY06. In October 2005, FB-2B was 22 Apr 1996. Your chart shows that at the end of FY07, 24 months later, it was only 15 Nov 1996. In two years, a slow and steady increase of less than 7 months (with just that 2 month retrogression as a brief "stop" between FY's).

For a better comparison to what is happening now, go back to that same time period, but look at FB-1. What happened FY06-FY07 in the FB-1 category is just a smaller example of what happened this FY (BUT this year's retrogression was on a much larger scale). In Aug 2006 they advanced FB-1 by a year to speed up visa usage, then immediately regressed 2 mos later. It took more than a year to go back up to that 'advanced' date they used to speed up number usages.

That was just a 1 year jump to stimulate visa usage. This time, it was a multi-year jump to stimulate visa usage.

The two retrogressions had different reasons, but like I said once before, you never know what will happen with these crazy numbers!

[ramonaks]

Haaay, such a sad news to see that the F2A category moved back another year... What to do, what to do? huhuhuhu

[greggy279]

I like your research and I hope your conclusion is correct. To compare two periods of retrogression, you have to consider the different reasons that caused the two retrogressions.

The 2006 regression was a simple stop procedure because most of the FY06 FB-2B visa numbers were issued in the first 10 months of the FY. Once the new numbers became available in October (the beginning of FY07), the big jump was just restoring the numbers back to the previous July level, plus two weeks.

Extend your numbers back to the beginning of FY06. In October 2005, FB-2B was 22 Apr 1996. Your chart shows that at the end of FY07, 24 months later, it was only 15 Nov 1996. In two years, a slow and steady increase of less than 7 months (with just that 2 month retrogression as a brief "stop" between FY's).

For a better comparison to what is happening now, go back to that same time period, but look at FB-1. What happened FY06-FY07 in the FB-1 category is just a smaller example of what happened this FY (BUT this year's retrogression was on a much larger scale). In Aug 2006 they advanced FB-1 by a year to speed up visa usage, then immediately regressed 2 mos later. It took more than a year to go back up to that 'advanced' date they used to speed up number usages.

That was just a 1 year jump to stimulate visa usage. This time, it was a multi-year jump to stimulate visa usage.

The two retrogressions had different reasons, but like I said once before, you never know what will happen with these crazy numbers!

Looking at F2A category for FY 2006 and 2007, it took 7 months bago bumalik sa 1-Mar-02 (from May 2006 to Dec 2006).. pansinin nyo rin na yung data from July 2006 to Sep 2006 (3 months).. parang katulad sya ng nangyayari ngayon.. Dec 2006 onwards kung napansin nyo bumalik na sa 1-Mar-02 yung processing with 1 to 2 weeks interval bawat buwan... pansinin nyo from Dec 2006 to Sep 2007, 7 months lang yung galaw nya (Mar 2002 to Oct 2002).. so, assuming na 2 months yung advancement kada buwan, lumalabas na by Sep 2011 nasa August 2000 pa lang ang PD; by Sep 2012 nasa Aug 2002 na yung cut-off ng PD. pero syempre kung bumagal pa lao, let's say instead of 2 months advancement eh naging 1 month or 2 weeks, malamang aabutin pa ng ilang taon! but on a positive thought, assuming na gumanda ang galaw, by this year or early next year eh babalik na sa Sep 2002 ang PD

FY-2006 F2A
Oct 2006 1-Nov-01
Nov 1-Dec-01
Dec 1-Jan-02
Jan 15-Jan-02
Feb. 8-Feb-02
Mar 22-Feb-02
Apr 1-Mar-02
May 1-Mar-02
Jun 22-Apr-01
Jul 1-Sep-99
Aug 8-Sep-99
Sep 22-Sep-99

FY-2007
Oct 2007 22-Apr-01
Nov 1-Sep-01
Dec 1-Mar-02
Jan 15-Mar-02
Feb 22-Mar-02
Mar 22-Mar-02
Apr 1-Apr-02
May 8-Apr-02
Jun 22-Apr-02
Jul 1-Jun-02
Aug 22-Jul-02
Sep 8-Oct-02

[JA]

pero syempre kung bumagal pa lao, let's say instead of 2 months advancement eh naging 1 month or 2 weeks, malamang aabutin pa ng ilang taon! but on a positive thought, assuming na gumanda ang galaw, by this year or early next year eh babalik na sa Sep 2002 ang PD

Yes, the more we look at this, the more the answer always comes out the same: "maybe this year, maybe many years".

Very frustrating for a lot of people!

[Pauzz]

Yes, the more we look at this, the more the answer always comes out the same: "maybe this year, maybe many years".

Very frustrating for a lot of people!

marami pa ako di nalalaman regarding sa mga movement ng mga category, eto example ko lang as of now this coming march nasa aug 99 ang PD ng f2b, ang PD ko is aug 2001, base sa pag compute ko kung aabante ang category ng f2b like example, 2months or more, magiging current ang PD ko by year 2012, pero kung weeks or 1month ang abante malamang tatagal pa ng ilang taon bago maging current ang PD ko. think positive nalang sana gumanda ang movement lahat ng category.