Originally Posted by
JA
Good intelligent questions that are not easy to answer. The problem is, to understand retrogression you have to understand visa allocation and visa availability predictions, and availability predictions are just educated guesses.
Here are the background facts, which you may already know. Please remember that I am just giving my understanding of how the system works:
-Visa allocation uses a fiscal year (FY), 1 October to 30 September.
-FY10 was 1 OCT 2009 to 30 SEP 2010. FY11 is 1 OCT 2010 to 30 SEP 2011.
-Congress allocates a set number of immigrant visas to be issued each FY, and also sets a maximum that can be issued to any one country.
-Those visas are divided between the different categories.
-Although unused visa numbers can move to be used in a different category, numbers cannot pass from one FY to the next FY!
So, the Department of State (DOS) has the very difficult job of trying to distribute all of the visas numbers every fiscal year, by order of everyone's category and priority date, and be sure they have no visa numbers left over at the end of the FY that will go unused and be wasted.
To do this, the DOS has developed the cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin. The goal is to gradually advance the cutoff dates each month, keeping a close watch on how many visas are issued, so that by the end of the FY all the visas for that year have been issued.
Now, here is where the problems and guessing begins - visa availability predictions. In short, the DOS does not know how fast to advance a priority date because it does not know how many applicants are waiting to apply, and will apply, based on the new cutoff date. Simply, there is no giant graph that lists waiting applicants by category and priority date. So, if they want to give out 500 visas, do they advance the cutoff date by 15 days or 15 months? That is where they just have to use their best judgement.
There are several reasons why the do not have such a graph. First, visa numbers are used by both the DOS at the embassies and by USCIS inside the United States. The DOS has a good estimate of what numbers the embassies will be needing because these cases are mostly going thru the NVC, and they can keep a good count of what is going to be needed. BUT, the DOS does not know how many visas are going to be needed by USCIS! There is no counting system in place to give DOS any accurate advance notice of how many visas USCIS is going to need from one month to the next! Second, not everyone who has been petitioned will apply for an immigrant visa. Some may decide not to, some have converted to different categories, some may not know it is time to apply, and others may have already immigrated in some other way. Finally, there is a 5 to 12 month gap between the beginning and end of the IV application process. Without knowing how many people applying in the US have started the process, DOS cannot get a good count on how many visas will be claimed at the end of the process!
HERE IS where things sometimes go wrong.
Towards the end of the FY, it looked like not enough people are applying for Immigrant Visas, so they started advancing the cutoff dates. Advancing more and more in hopes of not having any unused numbers. You saw that beginning in June 2010.
BUT, what happens if you advanced too far? Because of the statistical reporting lag time, months later DOS sees too many people applying. Probably there was also a higher than expected number of applicants in the US. This has been a problem before. Now there are so many applicants applying that they may run out of even FY11 visa numbers. So you have retrogression. DOS backs up the cutoff dates to stop issuing visas to all but the oldest cases. They will hold the retrogression until they can get a good a good reading of the actual visa demand. Some say that DOS went way too far with advancing the cutoff dates last year. I do not know. But I do know they usually do an amazing job considering the incomplete information they are forced to use.
You asked why people are still getting the "go ahead" letters from the NVC, even when the PD is so far away. Keep in mind that the NVC tries to be proactive and as automated as possible. The NVC tries to get applicants started on their application before the PD is current, sometimes even when the PD is still a year from the cutoff date. NVC does this so applicants can immigrate more quickly once their PD becomes current. When the cutoff dates advanced rapidly, fee bills went out to cases with priority dates even further out, just to get those cases started. Automation!
PauzzI know both you and greggy279 are closely watching the FB-2B category. I have to tell you that I am terrible at predicting visa availability. That is why I have tried to never predict anyone's wait time. But I will say that there are some factors that make me a bit worried about how long FB-2B will be retrogressed. First is the CSPA provision that allows those in FB-1 to use the FB-2B priority dates. Because of the high rate of filipinos becoming naturalized USCitizens, the FB-1 cutoff is slower then the FB-2B cutoff. In practice, this means that more people will be using the FB-2B numbers than normal, and Philippine FB-2B will advance slower then any other country's FB-2B cutoff. The second reason I'm concerned is that last August the FB-2B category sped past all of the early 2001 cutoffs and just kept going. In early 2001, record numbers of petitions were filed in all categories, and many of those applications were for people in the US. With all other countries, the PDs stalled for a while when they hit early 2001. I would expect the same to happen when the Philippine numbers start moving forward again. Pauzz, I hope three months from now you will come tell me I was wrong!!
Wow, that was long and my flight is being called. Good night or day PExers!
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grabe *** pag ka total wreck ko sa traffic matatagalan pa ma ayos. basta pag nag papadala sila ng form ayusin mo lang importante ma ayos mo lahat.
