As we wave “goodbye” to Tropical storm DOKSURI (Dindo), our attention turns eastward again, as a new threat faces residents of the WESPAC in the form of 96W INVEST. 96W formed on Wednesday, as DOKSURI was just starting to get itself together. Both systems were born from the same stationary monsoon trough system that has been south of Guam for the past 21 days or so. 96W has been forecast to threaten a large number of residents in the WESPAC as it takes a path similar to the other storms. Here is the latest information on 96W INVEST:
The current computer forecast models from NOGAPS and GFS are alarming for residents of the Philippines. The 29Jun18z GFS model run indicates a classic Samar-Bicol-Tagalog path, which directly affects two the of the Philippines most populous regions, with Cebu in the Visayas, and the NCR (National Capital Region) in Luzon. The NOGAPS model runs were indicating a more northerly track, but the 29Jun18z NOGAPS model run has now adjusted well to the west, and is more closely resembling the GFS plot. This worries me, because GFS has handled the movement of storms very well so far this season. If that record holds true, the Philippines is in for a rough week.