Philippines: Tropical Watch

[leon azcarraga]

[QUOTE=flipto;38386469]Philippines needs to start preparing for "Super Typhoon" Lupit

...i guess everybody should. Everyone must have a prepared mindset and consider all incoming typhoons as ONDOY and PEPENG.

Perhaps we are now FORCED to LEARN from the traumatic destructions brought by the combo typhoon ...

Are you READY Philippines?

BIG THANKS to PEX FORECASTERS. Doing a great job and service. Keep it coming ( not LUPIT) i mean, the info

[Rocker09]

From JTWC :
As you can see.....they changed the forecast for lupit to move a littlle bit more north than what they originally said....

[flipto]

forecast models have yet to find agreement

[Bahay_Kubo]

masyadong erratic ang movement ni Lupit (Ramil). ang hirap i-predict kung saan siya pupunta.

one thing is for sure though: the possibility of Lupit (Ramil) intensifying into a super typhoon.

[theo78]

huwag sanang magdala ng maraming ulan...yan ang talagang worry ngayon kay ramil...oh better yet, si lupit!

[sgrebs]

Napakalaki nga ng sakop nitong si Ramil, what we can do is pray really hard... that the resumption of the steering ridge control of Ramil gets delayed some more than predicted, so that this typhoon could drift further north before turning west again, para sa Batanes area na lang dumaan.

[flipto]

Lupit has moved slowly poleward. Expect a lot of movement in all direction (that's why the forecast models are all over the place). I think by the time this is over, we will see a clearer view of where this is headed.

[Rocker09]

Lupit has moved slowly poleward. Expect a lot of movement in all direction (that's why the forecast models are all over the place). I think by the time this is over, we will see a clearer view of where this is headed.

Some are saying that lupit might make a loop to the east then go southwest........

[flipto]

Some are saying that lupit might make a loop to the east then go southwest........

several models are showing a southwest track

[Rocker09]

several models are showing a southwest track

It's a possibility....In my personal opinion, I kinda doubt that it will happen......It will most likely still do a West movement but of course, we can't discount all possibilities...

[Bahay_Kubo]

parang hindi na sigurado ang lahat ng weather agencies, including JTWC and JMA, sa magiging forecast track ni Lupit (Ramil). however, given the latest forecast tracks issued by JTWC and other agencies, Lupit (Ramil) is still forecast to hit Northern Luzon but its track has gone towards a more southwesterly direction (Ilocos Norte?).

[flipto]

Some are saying that lupit might make a loop to the east then go southwest........

Theres the southwest track..

[smbcooper]

My personal forecast is this... it will be similar to the track of QUEDAN (also a super typhoon), that is, the movement is towards Japan.

RAMIL will NOT hit Northern Luzon because of the absence of fujiwhara effect (Pepeng with Quedan)... the southwest track will only be possible if it will not dissipate in the area near Taiwan/Japan.

[flipto]

My personal forecast is this... it will be similar to the track of QUEDAN (also a super typhoon), that is, the movement is towards Japan.

RAMIL will NOT hit Northern Luzon because of the absence of fujiwhara effect (Pepeng with Quedan)... the southwest track will only be possible if it will not dissipate in the area near Taiwan/Japan.

If Lupit will not hit Northen Luzon, it's not because the absence of fujiwhara effect. It has nothing to do with fujiwhara effect at all. If Lupit were to miss Northern Luzon and heads NE, its because of the trough.

[Rocker09]

If Lupit will not hit Northen Luzon, it's not because the absence of fujiwhara effect. It has nothing to do with fujiwhara effect at all. If Lupit were to miss Northern Luzon and heads NE, its because of the trough.

Do you think the trough is deep enough to make Lupit move NE?

[Rocker09]

180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 132.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
ERODES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE, THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FAST MOVING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA, THE RIDGE WILL VERY QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST, A TRACK FAVORED BY THE
MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. INTENSITY AND POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

[Rocker09]

[flipto]

Do you think the trough is deep enough to make Lupit move NE?

No. It's possible but I don't think it'll happen. Lupit is forcasted to move West in 24 hours.

[Rocker09]

No. It's possible but I don't think it'll happen. Lupit is forcasted to move West in 24 hours.

Same thoughts here...

[smbcooper]

If Lupit will not hit Northen Luzon, it's not because the absence of fujiwhara effect. It has nothing to do with fujiwhara effect at all. If Lupit were to miss Northern Luzon and heads NE, its because of the trough.

opps, sorry, I was comparing RAMIL track to that of PEPENG (w/ fujiwhara effect)... and I agree with you that "If Lupit were to miss Northern Luzon and heads NE, its because of the trough."

But, I personally think that if QUEDAN (a super typhoon) went to Japan, I HOPE that the trough will further deepen to make LUPIT go NE.... please let us PRAY for it to happen!!!