Philippines: Tropical Watch

[sgrebs]

^ sobrang weakening (temporary) ng steering ridge itong basis ng tracks sa lower diagram compared to tracks of JTWC, pero just the same sapul pa din Luzon.

calling for prayer brigades ulit tayo nyan - na sana may maencounter ulit na strong vertical wind shear somewhere along the way itong si bagyong Ramil para humina-hina sa pagiging superTyphoon, at sana ay mabilis ang track speed nya habang bumabagtas ng Pinas, at hindi na sya magpabandying-bandying pa sa Luzon tulad ni Pepeng.

anyway, looks like we will have a sunny weekend, habang nasa pagitan tayo ng weather systems na humihila sa mga clouds papunta sa kanila - the calm before the storm...

[Bahay_Kubo]

mukhang akmang akma ang international name na ibinigay sa paparating na bagyo- Lupit, na tayo mismo ang nag-contribute. mukhang malupit nga itong si Lupit.

[Bahay_Kubo]

parang nanghuhula na naman ng forecast track itong mga taga-PAGASA.


http://www.gmanews.tv/story/174780/n...y-night-pagasa


New storm may enter RP Friday night - Pagasa
10/16/2009 | 08:13 AM


A tropical storm that may threaten parts of Luzon this weekend may enter Philippine territory as early as Friday night, state weather forecasters said.

But the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) also said the storm may yet spare the country and head for Taiwan.

"Yung potential na maaring tamaan, either Central Luzon, Northern Luzon, o bahagyang lilihis at patungong Taiwan (Chances are it will hit Central Luzon or Northern Luzon, or change course and head for Taiwan)," Pagasa head Prisco Nilo said in an interview on dzXL radio.

The storm, once it enters Philippine territory, will be code-named "Ramil."

Nilo said that while the storm, internationally code-named "Lupit," is heading for Visayas, there is very little chance it will make landfall over the central Philippine region.

"Medyo napakababa ng probability [na] tumama ng Visayas (There is a very small chance of it hitting Visayas)," he said.

On the other hand, Pagasa forecaster Connie Dadivas said the storm will likely enter the Philippine area of responsibility about 9 p.m. Friday.


No landfall?

Dadivas, however, said the storm will not immediately have any direct effect on any part of the country Friday night.

"Boundary pa lang ito, papasok ito sa boundary pa lang ... Di natin masasabing magla-landfall ito (It will just be entering the boundary of our territory. It will not necessarily make landfall)," she said in an interview on dzBB radio.

In its 5 a.m. bulletin, Pagasa said Lupit was estimated at 1,350 km east of Visayas with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

It is forecast to move west northwest at 26 kph, Pagasa said.

Also, Pagasa said an intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is affecting Southern Luzon and Visayas.

"Southern Luzon and Visayas will experience mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms," it said.

Tropical cyclones "Ondoy" and "Pepeng" wrought havoc across Luzon, including Metro Manila, killing nearly 700 people and displacing over a million others. Authorities have reported that billions have been lost in damage to properties and agriculture. - GMANews.TV

[Rocker09]

JMA's latest forecast.......just an FYI, Lupit is officially a typhoon now....

[Rocker09]

This is one of the biggest storms I have ever seen..........Even though it won't directly hit metro manila, I have a feeling that we will still experience heavy rainfall because of Lupit's size.
****DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS MERELY AN OPINION***********

[Rocker09]

from JTWC
****************



WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 133.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT)//
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) LUPIT HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED TO ITS
CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A
FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
(4.0), RJTD (3.5) AND KNES (T3.5).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 22W WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT VEERS POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THIS
STAIR-STEP MOVEMENT WILL BE MOMENTARY AS A SECONDARY LOBE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING ON THE FOURTH DAY.
C. BY TAU 72, TS LUPIT WILL RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS NORTHERN PHILIPPINES THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH
LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTING THE POLEWARD JOG IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AT VARYING DEGREES. WBAR HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION WITH A
SHARP U-TURN TO THE RIGHT, AND GFDN AND NOGAPS ON A POLEWARDS RECURVE
TOWARDS JAPAN. THE EUROPEAN MODELS - EGRR AND ECMWF, ARE MORE WESTWARD
AND LEFT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AND JUST RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[Bahay_Kubo]

^ Lupit (Ramil) is already a Category 1 typhoon. i expect Lupit (Ramil) to further intensify as travels over the Philippine Sea on its way towards Northern-Central Luzon.

[Rocker09]

^ Lupit (Ramil) is already a Category 1 typhoon. i expect Lupit (Ramil) to further intensify as travels over the Philippine Sea on its way towards Northern-Central Luzon.

Expect a little shift of lupit to the north soon.....If that happens, it will most likely hit extreme northern luzon....

[flipto]

[Bahay_Kubo]

Expect a little shift of lupit to the north soon.....If that happens, it will most likely hit extreme northern luzon....

that is similar to the forecast track made by the JTWC, am i right? the JMA projection has Northern-Central Luzon as areas where Lupit (Ramil) will have its landfall.

[Rocker09]

that is similar to the forecast track made by the JTWC, am i right? the JMA projection has Northern-Central Luzon as areas where Lupit (Ramil) will have its landfall.

Yup, I usually follow the JTWC...........The JMA also have it shifting to north but the movement on the JMA website has it hitting central luzon...

[Rocker09]

Again....this is a big storm...It's enough to cover the whole luzon area

[flipto]

it is hard to pinpoint the exact track of a strengthening typhoon especially when it is 4-5 days out. this could go north or south of the projected path

[Rocker09]

it is hard to pinpoint the exact track of a strengthening typhoon especially when it is 4-5 days out. this could go north or south of the projected path

Right now, it's moving a little bit south of what the JTWC predicted......That steering ridge needs to weaken soon for the country's sake...

[flipto]

Again....this is a big storm...It's enough to cover the whole luzon area

the storm keeps getting bigger

[Rocker09]

the storm keeps getting bigger

Let me revise what I said earlier....IT'S ENOUGH TO COVER THE WHOLE PHILIPPINES

[Peter►]

Di ba yung red sa circulation ng bagyo yung yung tubig ulan, tama ba?

[Rocker09]

Di ba yung red sa circulation ng bagyo yung yung tubig ulan, tama ba?

Yup...The darker the redness, the more rains it has....

[leon azcarraga]

the storm keeps getting bigger

...kakatakot naman ang pangalan...at ang lupit naman sa laki ng bagyong LUPIT...

[leon azcarraga]

2x.......................................