Philippines: Tropical Watch

[flipto]

"Tropical Disturbance 93W has moved to 10N 129E. Earlier scatterometry pass indicated a closed surface circulation. Yet, convection is still very disorganzied at this moment. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 24 hours."

"Tropical Disturbance 94W has developed near 11N 157E. Animated IR imageries show convective bands trying to wrap into a centre from the west. Organzation has been improving slowly over the past 12 hours since its formation. With moederate divergence and weak wind shear, gradual development may be possible in the coming few days."

[flipto]

Invest 94W:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 161.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF INFLOW
TOWARDS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
DISORGANIZED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A 130234Z
AQUA-1 PASS SHOWS SPORADIC CONVECTION AND INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE CIRCULATION, HELPING TO
PROVIDE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A BROAD
CIRCULATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, GOOD VWS, AND
FAVORABLE SST/OHC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.


"ECMWF predicts a tropical storm that strenghtens into a strong typhoon that makes landfall in Phillipines"

Malayo pa ito so the track could still change

[flipto]

Upgraded to Tropical Depression 22W

[leon azcarraga]

Good JOB Bro...Thanks for the update. Keep it coming...

[flipto]

The storm is still forcasted to hit the Philippines. It is still far away but be prepared.

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. DEPRESSION 22W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

[Bahay_Kubo]

^ when Tropical Depression 22W transforms into a tropical storm, it will have the international name of Lupit, which is one of the ten international names that was contributed by the Philippines.

International Typhoon Names Which were Contributed by the Philippines:

1. Maliksi
2. Danas
3. Hagupit
4. Lupit
5. Talas
6. Cimaron
7. Hagibis
8. Molave
9. Malakas
10. Talim

[flipto]

TD 22W Spotted; Could be a Threat

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous post is now upgraded to a tropical depression. TD 22W is moving west at 25kph. It has maximum sustained winds of 45kph. Intensification is highly likely as the system moves across the Pacific. It is forecasted to pass south of Guam by tomorrow night as a tropical storm. It should continue to gather strength, possibly becoming a typhoon by Friday or Saturday morning. Models can't agree yet on the track. Two solutions emerged in the latest runs: a more northward track, missing the Philippines (just like Quedan); or it would continue moving west then turn wnw and then possibly hit northern Luzon as a strong typhoon.

Unfortunately, we are leaning more on the latter forecast as there's no strong reason yet for this system to turn northward. The high pressure in the northern Pacific will be the key for the track of this system and right now, it looks like it will steer this TD to the west. People in Luzon should be vigilant and keep an eye for further developments regarding this threat.

[Bahay_Kubo]

^ i expect Tropical Depression 22W to become develop further into a tropical storm up to a very strong typhoon (possibly a Category 4 or, worse, a Category 5) given the vast expanse of ocean between Guam and the Philippines.

if ever, it will be a double whammy for people of Northern Luzon. after being hit repeatedly by Typhoon Parma (Pepeng), they would be hit again by, if ever, Typhoon Lupit.

[Peter►]

oh ohhhh very possible na sa northern luzon na naman tama nito. Pero sana magbago direction nito papuntang north.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe.../vsmtsatw.html

[flipto]

[The Kryptonian]

warning sign na ba ang malakas na pagulan ng bandang 3 AM kanina? holy smokes. wala pa naman akong payong. thanks for the info brader.

[flipto]

Category 3 by Monday

[Bahay_Kubo]

malabo pang maramdaman natin si potential Typhoon Lupit anytime this week. based on the forecast map that was posted by flipto, si potential Typhoon Lupit ay mas malapit sa Pilipinas as a Category 3 typhoon on Monday so most likely ay either Tuesday or Wednesday next week pa direktang tatama sa Pilipinas, probably in areas between Northern and Central Luzon, si potential Typhoon Lupit.

[Bahay_Kubo]

as per update by www.typhoon2000.ph, Tropical Depression 22W has intensified into a tropical storm. while it remains unnamed (because the Japan Meteorological Agency has a specific standard to follow before giving a tropical storm its international name), the next international name in line will be Lupit, which was contributed by the Philippines.

the forecast map from www.typhoon2000.ph shows that the storm, which is predicted to reach the strength of a Category 3 typhoon, is headed for the direction of Northern and Central Luzon.

[Rocker09]

Wtpn31 Pgtw 150900
Msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Rmks/
1. Tropical Storm 22w (twentytwo) Warning Nr 006
01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northwestpac
Max Sustained Winds Based On One-minute Average
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
---
Warning Position:
150600z --- Near 12.1n 142.2e
Movement Past Six Hours - 280 Degrees At 23 Kts
Position Accurate To Within 060 Nm
Position Based On Center Located By Satellite
Present Wind Distribution:
Max Sustained Winds - 040 Kt, Gusts 050 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 055 Nm Northeast Quadrant
045 Nm Southeast Quadrant
045 Nm Southwest Quadrant
050 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Repeat Posit: 12.1n 142.2e
---
Forecasts:
12 Hrs, Valid At:
151800z --- 12.7n 138.7e
Max Sustained Winds - 045 Kt, Gusts 055 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 070 Nm Northeast Quadrant
060 Nm Southeast Quadrant
060 Nm Southwest Quadrant
065 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Vector To 24 Hr Posit: 285 Deg/ 14 Kts
---
24 Hrs, Valid At:
160600z --- 13.3n 135.9e
Max Sustained Winds - 055 Kt, Gusts 070 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 050 Kt Winds - 030 Nm Northeast Quadrant
025 Nm Southeast Quadrant
025 Nm Southwest Quadrant
030 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 095 Nm Northeast Quadrant
085 Nm Southeast Quadrant
085 Nm Southwest Quadrant
095 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Vector To 36 Hr Posit: 285 Deg/ 09 Kts
---
36 Hrs, Valid At:
161800z --- 13.7n 134.1e
Max Sustained Winds - 065 Kt, Gusts 080 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 064 Kt Winds - 020 Nm Northeast Quadrant
020 Nm Southeast Quadrant
020 Nm Southwest Quadrant
020 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 050 Kt Winds - 040 Nm Northeast Quadrant
040 Nm Southeast Quadrant
040 Nm Southwest Quadrant
040 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 115 Nm Northeast Quadrant
105 Nm Southeast Quadrant
105 Nm Southwest Quadrant
115 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Vector To 48 Hr Posit: 295 Deg/ 05 Kts
---
Extended Outlook:
48 Hrs, Valid At:
170600z --- 14.2n 133.1e
Max Sustained Winds - 075 Kt, Gusts 090 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 064 Kt Winds - 025 Nm Northeast Quadrant
025 Nm Southeast Quadrant
025 Nm Southwest Quadrant
025 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 050 Kt Winds - 050 Nm Northeast Quadrant
050 Nm Southeast Quadrant
050 Nm Southwest Quadrant
050 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 125 Nm Northeast Quadrant
115 Nm Southeast Quadrant
110 Nm Southwest Quadrant
120 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Vector To 72 Hr Posit: 320 Deg/ 03 Kts
---
72 Hrs, Valid At:
180600z --- 15.2n 132.3e
Max Sustained Winds - 090 Kt, Gusts 110 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Radius Of 064 Kt Winds - 035 Nm Northeast Quadrant
035 Nm Southeast Quadrant
035 Nm Southwest Quadrant
035 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 050 Kt Winds - 060 Nm Northeast Quadrant
060 Nm Southeast Quadrant
060 Nm Southwest Quadrant
060 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Radius Of 034 Kt Winds - 130 Nm Northeast Quadrant
120 Nm Southeast Quadrant
120 Nm Southwest Quadrant
130 Nm Northwest Quadrant
Vector To 96 Hr Posit: 295 Deg/ 05 Kts
---
Long Range Outlook:
Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 250 Nm
On Day 4 And 350 Nm On Day 5... And For Intensity
Near 20 Kt Each Day.
---
96 Hrs, Valid At:
190600z --- 16.0n 130.4e
Max Sustained Winds - 100 Kt, Gusts 125 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
Vector To 120 Hr Posit: 280 Deg/ 09 Kts
---
120 Hrs, Valid At:
200600z --- 16.7n 126.8e
Max Sustained Winds - 115 Kt, Gusts 140 Kt
Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only
---
Remarks:
150900z Position Near 12.2n 141.3e.
Tropical Storm (ts) 22w (twentytwo), Located Approximately 170 Nm
West-southwest Of Guam, Has Tracked West-northwestward At 19 Knots
Over The Past Six Hours. Animated Multispectral Imagery Shows
Multiple Bands Of Deep Convection Starting To Wrap Into
The Low Level Circulation Center. Animated Water Vapor Imagery
Depicts Very Good Poleward Outflow Into A Tropical Upper Tropospheric
Trough (tutt) Cell Located To The Northeast Of The System. As Such,
The Current Intensity Of 40 Knots Is Slightly Higher Than Dvorak
Estimates From Pgtw, Knes (t2.5) And Rjtd (t1.5) Due To The Improved
Convective Organization And Low Level Signature (evident In A
150400z Amsre Microwave Image). Ts 22w Is Expected To Track Generally
West-northwestward Along The Southern Periphery Of The Subtropical
Ridge. By Tau 48, The System Is Expected To Slow In Forward Track
Speed And Take A More Poleward Track As A Mid-latitude Trough
Temporarily Weakens The Subtropical Steering Ridge. By Tau 96, Ts 22w
Should Resume Its Westward Track Under The Influence Of A Rebuilt
Subtropical Ridge. As Ts 22w Makes Its Way Through The Philippine
Sea, Sufficient Poleward Outflow Into The Tutt And Excellent Ocean
Heat Content Values Will Enable The System To Intensify Into A Strong
Typhoon. Maximum Significant Wave Height At 150600z Is 12 Feet. Next
Warnings At 151500z, 152100z, 160300z And 160900z.//
Nnnn

[Rocker09]

Watch out.....looks like it's heading to north luzon again...

[Rocker09]

I think the best forecast to follow is the one from the JTWC...They have been the most accurate in the past......The JMA is also reliable.......

For other updates, try visiting this forum...The people here are VERY helpful
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

[flipto]

Category 4 by Tuesday

[Rocker09]

Category 4 by Tuesday

It's movement is a off by a little to the south compared to what the JTWC has...If this continues, central luzon might be in trouble...

[flipto]

Philippines needs to start preparing for "Super Typhoon" Lupit