The Peak Oil Crisis

[paenggoy]

A short explanation: most oil industries have peaked in terms of production. That means they can no longer draw more oil from wells and other sources. It is also expensive to look for more sources.

Demand for oil is increasing faster than the rate of production. That is because China and India now require more oil than ever. For the past few years, the U.S., which has only around 5 percent of the world's population, consumed up to 25 percent of the world's resources. Now, more people outside the U.S. want to consume at the same level. Thus, we have a combination of increasing population and increasing consumption per person which are fueling demand. Any new finding in oil resources is negated by this increasing demand.

It also turns out that some alternative sources of energy require petrol (e.g., during the mining and manufacturing process, etc.), and that as more look for materials needed for alternative sources, demand also increases for them. In general, then, what is happening to oil is also happening to uranium, wind mills, food, and others: the demand is catching up with supply.

The basis of peak oil theory came from the 1950s, when a scientist predicted that oil production would peak during the 1970s and that oil would become more expensive in the long run. Here's one short article about it:

http://www.energyandcapital.com/arti...ec-hubbert/549

For more links, visit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

For sites that contain links links to articles updated frequently:

http://www.energybulletin.net/

http://www.theoildrum.com/

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html (also, check the archives)

http://community.livejournal.com/peak_oil/

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

http://energyandcapital.com/

http://www.peakoil.com/

Documentaries:

http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

http://abc.net.au/science/crude/

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

http://www.asleepinamerica.com/

http://www.crudeimpact.com/

http://www.whatawaytogomovie.com/

[paenggoy]

Two-part interview with Robert Hirsch:

http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/...rt-l-hirsch-12

http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/...t-l-hirsch-22/

From what I gathered, his conclusion is that global oil production will remain within the 82-to-87 million barrels a day band for the next five years, and then start dropping after 2015.

I'm not sure about demand, but I think it may exceed 87 mbd next year.

[paenggoy]

"Bracing For Peak Oil Production By Decade's End"

http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/13/sun...g-cenovus.html

[imanhorn]

Di ba may bagong theory na ngayon kung paano nagagawa ang "fossil" fuel? It's no longer fossil daw.

[paenggoy]

I think it's an old theory (prob. from the nineteenth century) that has not been proven. Given that, we should probably concentrate more on Hirsch's warning, i.e., demand exceeding production during the next few years followed by a drop in production by '15.

[Busilak]

Hopefully, other sources will be discovered. i remember reading an article that said there was also fear on the depletion of coal, but fossil oil was discovered.

[paenggoy]

Unfortunately, global discoveries peaked in '64.

[PutotoyDacoycoy]

To dare go where no man has found marbles!

[Busilak]

Unfortunately, global discoveries peaked in '64.

I meant other, alternative energy sources found in time, in the same manner that fossil oil was able to replace coal.

[paenggoy]

I meant other, alternative energy sources found in time, in the same manner that fossil oil was able to replace coal.

They lack petrochemicals which we need for the manufacturing process. Thus, we still need oil even for alternative energy, from plastics to lubricants. In addition, resources needed for these sources may be lacking, esp. lithium. And even if we make them more efficient, the EROEI does not reach that of oil.

Given increasing demand worldwide and the fact that the global economy is geared towards continuous economic growth, the new source of energy that we will need has to offer the same benefits as oil (high EROEI, petrochemicals) and more.

Finally, as an aside, I'd like to add that we also face shortages for other resources, such as phosphates needed for mechanized agriculture.

[paenggoy]

"Tipping Point" (PDF)

http://www.feasta.org/documents/risk...ping_Point.pdf

[paenggoy]

"The oil 'peak' has been reached"

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/7001

[paenggoy]

"U.S. Military Orders Less Dependence on Fossil Fuels"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/sc.../05fossil.html

[sudolinux]

Why do I have the feeling once the military steps in, the future is bleak and that a pending conflict will ensue.

[paenggoy]

There are many sources of conflict, and in this case, it's increasing oil consumption needed to support a middle class lifestyle.

[paenggoy]

"Oil Gain to $85 in 2011 Survey Threatens OPEC on BRIC Demand"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...ic-demand.html

[paenggoy]

New repot from CNAS:

http://www.energybulletin.net/storie...eak-oil-debate

[paenggoy]

"Iraq announces jump in oil reserves"

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...122529481.html

[paenggoy]

"Analysis: Middle East Gas Consumption Outpaces Production"

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article....f=1&a_id=99359

[paenggoy]

"Study: World's 'Peak Coal' Moment Has Arrived"

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/09...ved-70121.html