On Probability

[la_flash]

There was an article in tothesource that discussed about probability, chance, mutation and evolution. Please check it here (http://www.tothesource.org/10_2_2007/10_2_2007.htm).

I posted the same article here at my blog (http://theforgottenapologist.blogspot.com/2009/02/discussion-when-pigs-fly-and-monkeys.html).

In my point #3, I wrote:

3. Some non-theists would argue that an intelligible word "She" has the same probability as "$sj". However, our point here is that it is nearly impossible to generate an intelligible word by chance alone compared to non-intelligible words. If we consider intelligibility of the word, then the probability would be skewed and would be non-equiprobable.


What do you think?

P.S. Let's take evolution and religion out of the discussion, ok? Let's concentrate on probability. Thanks.

[la_flash]

Do you think that a monkey could type an intelligible word given enough time?

[math_techie]

If we consider intelligibility of the word, then the probability would be skewed and would be non-equiprobable.


why?.......

[la_flash]

@math_techie:

1. Probability of an event depends on conditions, right?

2. Monkeys typing "S-h-e" in 3 key strokes has the same probability as "$-s-j", correct?
"She" is an intelligible word, while "$sj" is not (at least in english language).

Is this the same as saying that monkeys producing a non-intelligible word is the same as producing an intelligible one?

My answer is NO.

3. Back to my 2nd question, can monkeys type an intelligible word given enough time? Possibly. How long is the time they need is debatable.

4. Now, I'd like to raise a 3rd question? Is it possible for monkeys to write a whole book? Let us give them an ample amount of time. Will that be possible?

[lockex]

1. Probability of an event depends on conditions, right?



Uhh.. yes?


2. Monkeys typing "S-h-e" in 3 key strokes has the same probability as "$-s-j", correct?
"She" is an intelligible word, while "$sj" is not (at least in english language).

Is this the same as saying that monkeys producing a non-intelligible word is the same as producing an intelligible one?

My answer is NO.


Why? They have the same chances.

3. Back to my 2nd question, can monkeys type an intelligible word given enough time? Possibly. How long is the time they need is debatable.

4. Now, I'd like to raise a 3rd question? Is it possible for monkeys to write a whole book? Let us give them an ample amount of time. Will that be possible?

If time is infinity, then the probability of the infinite monkeys typing out every single book ever authored by man is 100%.

[la_flash]

Uhh.. yes?


Good, we agree on this one.


Why? They have the same chances.


The probability of typing "She" is the same as that of "$sj", I agree.

But, if we consider probability of typing an intelligible word and that of a non-intelligible word, then chances are not the same. That's what I'm saying.
For one, there are far too many non-intelligible character permutations that a monkey could type on a keyboard compared to intelligible ones. Don't you agree?




If time is infinity, then the probability of the infinite monkeys typing out every single book ever authored by man is 100%.

Hmmm, interesting. However, could you prove it to us mathematically?

On the side note, if time would have been infinite, the monkeys could have been dead already. Haha.

[la_flash]

so, is it probable for monkeys to type a whole book given enough time? or infinite time?

[p1215]

During the years that the Monkey Shakespeare Simulator Project (just google it) was running (2003-2007) the record length for an intelligible string was 24 characters long. During that time the monkey crew generated nearly 10^35 pages with each page requiring 2000 keystrokes.Daily records typically hovered around 18 to 19 characters.

[la_flash]

During the years that the Monkey Shakespeare Simulator Project (just google it) was running (2003-2007) the record length for an intelligible string was 24 characters long. During that time the monkey crew generated nearly 10^35 pages with each page requiring 2000 keystrokes.Daily records typically hovered around 18 to 19 characters.

Yes, I am familiar with that one.

The problem is, some would argue that it is a proof that in enough (or infinite?) time, the monkey could write one book.

Some of us, though, would argue that it is a proof that it is an impossible task.

So where should we put our bet then?

[math_techie]

when we say writing a book, does it mean creating a long collection of intelligible words that makes sense or is it just a long collection of intelligible words?

[la_flash]

when we say writing a book, does it mean creating a long collection of intelligible words that makes sense or is it just a long collection of intelligible words?

They say that monkeys could retype a whole book, specifically the plays of Shakespeare.

[la_flash]

So, can monkeys type the whole book? given enough time? how long would that be?