Projections for the Peso

[CaRaMBa]

Based on the current developments in the impeachment trial, what will happen to the peso? What are the official projections of the banks for this year? What do the economists have to say?


http://loc0.ezroot.com/resign/resignbutton.gif

[ginoledesma]

It was indeed shocking news to know that the Peso plunged to a low of P56.10 yesterday immediately after the outbreak of the terrible news. I hope that everyone does their part in protecting the Peso from further assaults. I was told not to be surprised should it fall to PHP60.00 to USD1. God forbid.

To all those responsible for maintaining the value of the Peso, I pray that your souls be blessed and rewarded for all the hardwork that you've done yesterday to bring it back up, and for all the sacrifices you're continuing to make to restore credibility and power back in the Peso. God help us all.

[aticus]

It will probably breach 60 by Feb if Erap doesn't resign.

As for the people who are propping it up... All I can say is this:

Mr. Buenaventura, pls. stop depleting our dollar reserves to defend the President. I don't know how much we have left. Sources in the banking industry tell me that the Banko Central may have to borrow just to keep propping it up.

Bad times are ahead.

[Kaboom!]

Well, in light of the most recent developments, I think the peso will now start to stabilize in the mid to high forties to the dollar.

Peace.

[brownpau]

I'm praying it goes back up to the mid-30's or even 20's! I can hope, can't I?

[leelayce]

i think it will go back to mid 40's


30's and 20's is impossible already

[batang uliran]

It should linger around the P45=$1 range in the short term.

[aticus]

I agree with b.u.

It should get to 45 by Monday or Tuesday... depending on whether the stock market follows suit.

IF Gloria does her job and IF the foreign fund managers begin to look at the Philippines again as a growth sector, I think the best case scenario will be 41 to 42 by the end of the year...

But if it goes up to 39, wow! :)

As it stands, my next trip already got about P4000 cheaper. In one day. Not bad...

[brownpau]

Waaah. I should have sold my dollars at 56 on Thursday and then bought them back this week. :lol:

[^GWAPITO]

an analyst said last saturday, after estrada resigned, more likely the peso will increase in value (probably 43 - 45). its just like what happened in 1986. investors went on a buying spree thus boosting the peso

[batang uliran]

The reason some of us have picked 45 in the near term is because the Thai baht is already trading at 43baht=$1 and traditionally (even before the Asian economic crisis), the baht has always been valued at about 5 to 10% more than the peso. The ringgit which is the other currency we previously measured the peso against has been pegged at 3.80 to $1 for some years now.

[DAILO]

Originally posted by batang uliran
The reason some of us have picked 45 in the near term is because the Thai baht is already trading at 43baht=$1 and traditionally (even before the Asian economic crisis), the baht has always been valued at about 5 to 10% more than the peso. The ringgit which is the other currency we previously measured the peso against has been pegged at 3.80 to $1 for some years now.

I agree in principle but I personnaly peg it approx 17% higher than the Thai Baht putting it in the range of 47. It will flunctuate between 46 to 49 but i see it correcting to 47.

The Thai baht ended stronger against the US dollar Friday in active trade in line with the Philippine peso. At 1100 GMT, the dollar/baht pair was quoted at 43.08, down from 43.20 late Thursday. Dealers see the pair moving in the range of 43.00-43.40 Monday.

Traders said offshore players sold the dollar in the afternoon session after the Philippine peso surged higher. Local players followed their lead.

Traders said the baht gained also support from local exporters who cashed in their dollar earnings when the dollar/baht pair breached 43.20.

GREED IS GOOD!!! :D :D :D

[aticus]

But how much lower can the peso go this year, assuming the economy keeps moving on the "up" side of the tracks? Would you say that it could reach 45?

Hehehe... Am planning a trip to Canada sometime this Christmas break... plus I need to go to Kuala Lumpur this summer... just want to know when it might be best to buy the ticket.. :)

[DAILO]

Originally posted by aticus
But how much lower can the peso go this year, assuming the economy keeps moving on the "up" side of the tracks? Would you say that it could reach 45?

Hehehe... Am planning a trip to Canada sometime this Christmas break... plus I need to go to Kuala Lumpur this summer... just want to know when it might be best to buy the ticket.. :)

I personally predict the peso at 54 at year end due to a number of reasons. I would buy my ticket now.

I dont know if you have noticed but the rate is correcting and hovering below 50. The BSP is cutting approx 50 basis points this week to bring down the interest rate. They intend to monitor the US rate so you can expect 200 more points to be shaved by the end of this year... Given a lower local interest rate would be less attractive to save in pesos... therfore either increased spending or savings in US dollars... its a fiscal policy to spruce up the economy.

I dont see it pegging 45... the resistance seems to be 47 while the first support level seems to be 49... after that i believe the next support level is 51 after the they lower the interest rate. Given with the data i have right now.. i would recommend purchasing the ticket now.

Personally i'm accumalating everything under 48

GREED IS GOOD!!! :D :D :D

[cianoy]

post-EDSA scenario: P50:$1 within one month

[zimdude]

and now... :|

I heard that the real value of the peso now is P55+ : $1 but it's propped up by OFW remittances. So after that (Christmas holidays?) ...

[renina]

This country is really not an "economic-friendly" environment. When I was younger, I had so many hopes that this country would rise from poverty and economic troubles. But look at us now, why is this happening?

Hope does not mean anything to me now, especially for the business conditions. Even when the whole world is suffering economic depression, this country sinks deeper.

Can an "economic miracle" still be possible? Maybe that is why many Filipinos look down on themselves because in the first place, we cannot do something with unemployment, high rise of prices of goods and other important things. Maybe that is why people resort to evil things like robbery, corruption and other troubles.

Sometimes, I really do envy America in all its vast opportunites. Kahit na puro work , at least you have something to do, be productive and best of all, sustain human dignity. Ang sarap nga naman maging American citizen or basta citizen of first-world countries. You can achieve more and have better quality life.


I wonder if population is connected to the economics. In what way? Well, we have to check on bringing Filipino children to this world. Di kaya puro suffering lang maabutan ng mga next generation of Filipinos. Kaya please birth control lang to those newly married, mahirap maging Pinoy! If possible, huwag na kayo mag anak. Well, it is really ur choice.

[renina]

If peso-dollar rate now is 50 something pesos to a dollar, what's really in store for us in the coming years?

Will it go as far as 100 pesos to a dollar.....? Tubig at hangin na lang bubuhay sa atin non....:)