What's your stock market pick?!

[cianoy]

I'd love to hear what stocks you guys are planning to buy. My stock picks for the year are Megaworld, SMDC, Meralco B, Musx, and possibly DGTL.

[batang uliran]

I've always been a blue chip kind of guy when it comes to the Philippine market and prefer to put my money in companies with a proven track record and an excellent management team and in the country, that means:

Ayala Corp.
Ayala Land
BPI
SM Prime
Meralco and First Phil. Holdings

I actually just sold my position in ABS-CBN which may be fully valued at this time. If I had to pick one stock to buy now and hold for at least a year, it would be BPI.

[cianoy]

I would have to agree that BPI is a really good stock, but personally I would wait until I see the bottomline effect of its acquisition of FEB. If technically cheap, I would buy it with a 1-2 month investment horizon.

ABS is pricey right now. Good decision to sell.

I'd take a chance with property developers. These are the most battered stocks in the market

[batang uliran]

Cianoy:

I think there's no question BPI will prosper because of 2 things: the merger with FEBTC which brings together 2 of the best run banks in the country and also with the 2 lowest NPL ratios and the entry of DBS bank which makes BPI the bank most likely to be able to successfully expand regionally. Metrobank has desperately tried to become bigger but the aquisition of Solidbank looks like a bigger for bigness sake move.

While the property counters are undervalued at this time, it may be premature to buy them and I have a problem with all these smaller companies - they may be good for a quick buck in the short term (with the attendant risks of course) but they have bad fundamentals including a huge amount of loans which have been difficult to service, and questionable management teams. Aside from ALI and SM Prime, these are speculatives through and through. C&P is a perfect example - much of its land bank is subject to multiple titles and claims and counter claims and it is saddled with loads of debt which it cannot repay at least not at the present time. The others are worse off and for the time being will be nothing more than niche players in relation to the big boys. ALI may be fully valued from a P/E point of view but is clearly a bargain when you look at the share price in relation to NAV which is probably the more correct way of valuing real estate companies.
AC not only has BPI and ALI - traditionally their breadwinners - but also a surging PF and Globe. And then there's this joint venture with Lycos and SingTel to develop a top flight internet portal for the Philippines and you can see why I think this is a promising stock.



[This message has been edited by batang uliran (edited 01-01-2000).]

[cianoy]

Strategically, BPI has been making all the right moves. MBT has been making the acquisitions just to reclaim its number one spot in terms of size. Still I believe that we can only see the benefits of a merger trickle down to the bottom line after about a year, or when the operational merger is completed. That's the only reason why I would like to wait for 1Q2000 figures. I would cite PLDT as an example. It has always been a viable business, but because of the large write-offs this year, its profit figures suffered. Investors know its just a restructuring, but they sold it down anyway. I believe investors are a fickle lot, and will dispose of a stock even if it remains an excellent investment in the long run.

It's been said that there's a two-year lag in the recovery of the property sector vis-a-vis the general economy. Well this is the first slump I've seen so I wouldn't know any better. Still, I would place my bet on a company that registered profit growth and positive operating cashflows in a year when a lot of companies are just thankful to survive. And that's Megaworld. No I don't go for C&P as well. Truth is, C&P was an attractive technical buy at P0.48. It was terribly oversold. Yet I passed it up anyway, because I wasn't confident about its long term prospects. FLI and FDC were my favorite stocks in 1997. Now I still like them but I'm hesitant because FLI had negative cashflows for 1999. As an investor, I think cashflows are the most crucial figures.


[This message has been edited by cianoy (edited 01-02-2000).]

[kiosk]

San Miguel

[Dobbo]

Definitely BPI has some growth potential if they can move quickly to take advantage of FEBTC's assets and prevent MBTC from mounting a comeback. I would want to see some major announcements in 1Q in this regard.

:D
A. Dobbo

[batang uliran]

Dobbo:

The key to the success of the BPI-FEBTC merger is not in the fact that the combined entity now becomes the biggest bank in the country nor is it in preventing MBTC from "mounting a comeback." It is a good one because it combines two well managed banks which are both profitable and with the entry of both DBS and Sakura Bank into the merged bank, it will soon have a regional presence. The name of the game is not who is the biggest bank (which is a goal Metro pursues no matter what) but which bank is the most financially sound, has the lowest NPL ratio and is the most profitable overall. Taking these factors into account, I think BPI-FEBTC is a powerhouse. I don't think anyone believes for one second that if MBTC and Solidbank eventually merge and regains for Metro the total assets title, that Metro then becomes the more attractive bank for investors in the short and long term.

[This message has been edited by batang uliran (edited 01-08-2000).]

[cianoy]

Quite true BU. It's actually a turn-off when I hear that MBT is planning to acquire another bank after Solidbank. I think MBT should concentrate on its present acquisitions first. Acquisition shouldn't be the end, but the start.

[cianoy]

For SMC true believers, now is a good time to accumulate the stock. SMC has an excellent strategy for the coming years. No more lethargic giant company.

[KuyaDanny]

Before this thread proceeds any further, I will have to make this disclaimer:

Any investment advice originating from this thread are purely the opinions of the people making the posts. If you make an investment decision based on the information from this forum, you do so at your own risk. We will not be liable for any losses you may sustain in this turbulent investment marketplace. If in doubt, consult a competent financial professional.

Should you become an instant millionaire, we will not demand a percentage of your profits. However, we won't mind if you bought us coffee, lunch, or even dinner. ;)

[doink]

how do u pick stocks ba and what do u look at ?

[krait]

PhilWeb ... hehehe

[angelicDAW]

merb, ali, absp, dgtl

[DAILO]

Originally posted by angelicDAW:
merb, ali, absp, dgtl

WELCOME angelicDAW! :D :D :D would you like to join us in HOT TIPS: Greed is Good. I would other brokers to join in and post.. Perhaps we can make several different forums.

WELCOME !